2010 FED-EX CUP ODDS AND SIMULATION

Together with XLSSports, I came up with a spreadsheet that simulates the FED EX Cup. Below are the results from 5,000 simulations:

-Didn’t adjust Tiger at all
-There was around a 1.1% chance that the FEC ends in a tie. That’s why all the odds add up to 101.1%. Honestly, I have no idea what would happen in this case.
-Commentary will be up tomorrow.

PLAYER WIN SECOND THIRD WIN ODDS
Tiger Woods 16.82% 9.02% 6.68% 495
Steve Stricker 15.92% 11.80% 7.82% 528
Jim Furyk 10.98% 7.96% 7.26% 811
Phil Mickelson 8.30% 7.56% 6.08% 1105
Ernie Els 4.82% 4.06% 4.22% 1975
Hunter Mahan 3.18% 3.26% 3.14% 3045
Dustin Johnson 2.70% 3.38% 2.76% 3604
Matt Kuchar 2.54% 2.90% 2.78% 3838
Paul Casey 2.52% 3.02% 3.42% 3869
Anthony Kim 2.02% 2.94% 2.86% 4851
Retief Goosen 2.00% 2.24% 2.22% 4901
Zach Johnson 1.92% 2.52% 2.40% 5109
Camilo Villegas 1.88% 2.60% 2.30% 5220
Nick Watney 1.74% 2.16% 2.26% 5648
Bubba Watson 1.64% 1.86% 1.76% 5999
Tim Clark 1.60% 2.44% 2.02% 6151
Robert Allenby 1.54% 2.24% 2.40% 6395
Rory McIlroy 1.48% 2.44% 2.10% 6658
Justin Rose 1.40% 1.92% 1.70% 7044
Jeff Overton 1.22% 1.66% 1.70% 8098
Luke Donald 1.12% 1.76% 2.00% 8830
Sean O’Hair 1.08% 0.80% 1.40% 9161
Bo Van Pelt 1.02% 1.44% 1.48% 9706
J.B. Holmes 0.88% 1.28% 1.40% 11266
Rickie Fowler 0.88% 1.48% 1.56% 11266
Ben Crane 0.86% 1.22% 1.22% 11530
Padraig Harrington 0.70% 0.74% 1.12% 14189
Geoff Ogilvy 0.68% 0.86% 1.24% 14609
Lucas Glover 0.60% 0.64% 1.20% 16570
Kevin Na 0.52% 0.74% 1.26% 19135
Ian Poulter 0.52% 0.44% 1.00% 19135
Ryan Moore 0.50% 0.72% 1.04% 19904
Kenny Perry 0.46% 0.52% 0.72% 21643
Jason Day 0.34% 0.78% 0.72% 29318
K.J. Choi 0.28% 0.46% 0.78% 35621
Bill Haas 0.26% 0.32% 0.72% 38369
David Toms 0.22% 0.42% 0.66% 45364
Adam Scott 0.20% 0.38% 0.66% 49910
Bryce Molder 0.20% 0.26% 0.50% 49910
Rory Sabbatini 0.20% 0.20% 0.34% 49910
Michael Sim 0.18% 0.22% 0.48% 55467
Stephen Ames 0.18% 0.18% 0.22% 55467
Fredrik Jacobson 0.16% 0.16% 0.32% 62413
Brandt Snedeker 0.16% 0.28% 0.50% 62413
Angel Cabrera 0.16% 0.08% 0.46% 62413
Vijay Singh 0.14% 0.18% 0.16% 71343
Charley Hoffman 0.14% 0.18% 0.40% 71343
Ryan Palmer 0.12% 0.20% 0.28% 83250
Brian Gay 0.12% 0.16% 0.32% 83250
Paul Goydos 0.12% 0.16% 0.40% 83250
Justin Leonard 0.12% 0.16% 0.26% 83250
Jason Bohn 0.10% 0.22% 0.36% 99920
Scott Verplank 0.10% 0.26% 0.42% 99920
Steve Marino 0.10% 0.52% 0.66% 99920
Pat Perez 0.08% 0.08% 0.12% 124925
Brendon de Jonge 0.06% 0.26% 0.34% 166600
Charles Howell III 0.06% 0.22% 0.26% 166600
Y.E. Yang 0.06% 0.22% 0.30% 166600
J.J. Henry 0.06% 0.04% 0.08% 166600
Chad Campbell 0.06% 0.16% 0.22% 166600
Boo Weekley 0.06% 0.02% 0.22% 166600
Davis Love III 0.06% 0.06% 0.22% 166600
John Merrick 0.06% 0.00% 0.00% 166600
Ben Curtis 0.06% 0.10% 0.14% 166600
Carl Pettersson 0.04% 0.12% 0.12% 249950
Brian Davis 0.04% 0.04% 0.04% 249950
Heath Slocum 0.04% 0.06% 0.08% 249950
Matt Jones 0.04% 0.08% 0.12% 249950
Jason Dufner 0.04% 0.16% 0.28% 249950
D.J. Trahan 0.04% 0.08% 0.20% 249950
Tom Gillis 0.04% 0.04% 0.04% 249950
D.A. Points 0.04% 0.06% 0.14% 249950
Tim Petrovic 0.04% 0.02% 0.12% 249950
Chad Collins 0.04% 0.02% 0.04% 249950
Webb Simpson 0.04% 0.00% 0.04% 249950
John Senden 0.04% 0.02% 0.16% 249950
Kevin Streelman 0.04% 0.02% 0.02% 249950
Ricky Barnes 0.02% 0.20% 0.12% 500000
Vaughn Taylor 0.02% 0.10% 0.22% 500000
Marc Leishman 0.02% 0.06% 0.24% 500000
Charlie Wi 0.02% 0.06% 0.18% 500000
John Rollins 0.02% 0.00% 0.10% 500000
Blake Adams 0.02% 0.04% 0.06% 500000
Jerry Kelly 0.02% 0.08% 0.00% 500000
Alex Cejka 0.02% 0.04% 0.04% 500000
Aaron Baddeley 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 500000
Martin Laird 0.02% 0.04% 0.00% 500000
Chris Couch 0.02% 0.00% 0.02% 500000
Jeff Maggert 0.02% 0.00% 0.02% 500000
Briny Baird 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 500000
Ryuji Imada 0.02% 0.04% 0.04% 500000
Bob Estes 0.02% 0.04% 0.12% 500000
Jonathan Byrd 0.02% 0.04% 0.02% 500000
Nathan Green 0.02% 0.00% 0.02% 500000
Kevin Stadler 0.02% 0.04% 0.04% 500000
Stuart Appleby 0.00% 0.02% 0.06% #DIV/0!
Stewart Cink 0.00% 0.08% 0.20% #DIV/0!
Spencer Levin 0.00% 0.02% 0.02% #DIV/0!
Shaun Micheel 0.00% 0.02% 0.10% #DIV/0!
Steve Elkington 0.00% 0.04% 0.02% #DIV/0!
Greg Chalmers 0.00% 0.00% 0.06% #DIV/0!
Jimmy Walker 0.00% 0.02% 0.06% #DIV/0!
Kris Blanks 0.00% 0.02% 0.00% #DIV/0!
Alex Prugh 0.00% 0.02% 0.00% #DIV/0!
Garrett Willis 0.00% 0.04% 0.06% #DIV/0!
Chris Riley 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% #DIV/0!
Josh Teater 0.00% 0.02% 0.08% #DIV/0!
Kevin Sutherland 0.00% 0.08% 0.14% #DIV/0!
Derek Lamely 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% #DIV/0!
Matt Bettencourt 0.00% 0.02% 0.02% #DIV/0!
Sergio Garcia 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% #DIV/0!
Joe Ogilvie 0.00% 0.02% 0.00% #DIV/0!
Bill Lunde 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% #DIV/0!
J.P. Hayes 0.00% 0.02% 0.04% #DIV/0!
Dean Wilson 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% #DIV/0!
Corey Pavin 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% #DIV/0!
Cameron Beckman 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% #DIV/0!
Troy Matteson 0.00% 0.02% 0.02% #DIV/0!
Andres Romero 0.00% 0.02% 0.00% #DIV/0!
Michael Letzig 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% #DIV/0!
David Duval 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% #DIV/0!
Woody Austin 0.00% 0.04% 0.04% #DIV/0!
Graham Delaet 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% #DIV/0!
Robert Garrigus 0.00% 0.00% 0.04% #DIV/0!

ODDS TO ADVANCE TO EACH ROUND
-Note: Average Points =points earned at end of Tour Championship/Iterations.

PLAYER Adv to DB Adv to BMW Adv to TC Average Points
Steve Stricker 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 2,153.55
Jim Furyk 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 1,910.83
Phil Mickelson 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 1,696.49
Tiger Woods 87.68% 81.50% 66.05% 1,626.78
Ernie Els 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 1,602.20
Hunter Mahan 100.00% 100.00% 99.86% 1,269.91
Matt Kuchar 100.00% 100.00% 99.54% 1,182.47
Dustin Johnson 100.00% 100.00% 95.72% 1,093.62
Tim Clark 100.00% 100.00% 98.16% 1,027.37
Bubba Watson 100.00% 100.00% 99.38% 992.62
Justin Rose 100.00% 100.00% 99.94% 977.53
Jeff Overton 100.00% 100.00% 99.52% 934.99
Zach Johnson 100.00% 100.00% 85.12% 918.06
Anthony Kim 100.00% 100.00% 81.62% 904.69
Camilo Villegas 100.00% 100.00% 84.90% 896.76
Robert Allenby 100.00% 100.00% 82.28% 848.05
Paul Casey 100.00% 100.00% 66.19% 841.27
Rory McIlroy 100.00% 100.00% 76.46% 827.87
Retief Goosen 100.00% 100.00% 69.37% 780.05
Ben Crane 100.00% 100.00% 88.96% 756.80
Luke Donald 100.00% 100.00% 74.51% 746.84
Bo Van Pelt 100.00% 100.00% 83.16% 739.17
Nick Watney 100.00% 100.00% 58.35% 669.01
J.B. Holmes 100.00% 100.00% 58.05% 538.75
Rickie Fowler 100.00% 100.00% 54.61% 518.51
Sean O’Hair 100.00% 99.98% 40.83% 436.85
Geoff Ogilvy 100.00% 98.42% 32.33% 365.76
Jason Day 100.00% 100.00% 39.51% 351.50
Padraig Harrington 100.00% 87.22% 27.09% 326.11
Kevin Na 100.00% 96.74% 28.05% 314.92
Bill Haas 100.00% 100.00% 37.07% 302.29
K.J. Choi 100.00% 100.00% 31.41% 289.31
Lucas Glover 100.00% 88.36% 24.82% 285.59
Ryan Moore 100.00% 100.00% 26.71% 283.60
Ian Poulter 100.00% 83.02% 22.08% 257.82
David Toms 100.00% 92.16% 23.00% 231.45
Kenny Perry 100.00% 56.97% 16.66% 216.26
Adam Scott 100.00% 100.00% 22.32% 207.85
Carl Pettersson 100.00% 100.00% 30.37% 184.46
Brendon de Jonge 100.00% 100.00% 25.11% 183.95
Steve Marino 100.00% 70.73% 14.78% 173.36
Ryan Palmer 100.00% 100.00% 22.10% 170.76
Scott Verplank 100.00% 93.42% 18.00% 168.98
Bryce Molder 100.00% 84.08% 16.22% 164.55
Brandt Snedeker 100.00% 97.38% 17.00% 162.42
Jason Bohn 100.00% 100.00% 18.98% 159.23
Fredrik Jacobson 100.00% 99.00% 15.00% 132.19
Brian Gay 100.00% 74.93% 12.78% 131.75
Charley Hoffman 99.92% 45.49% 9.86% 127.04
Ricky Barnes 100.00% 100.00% 16.82% 126.93
Michael Sim 100.00% 50.67% 9.78% 119.77
Vijay Singh 100.00% 60.03% 10.90% 119.62
Stephen Ames 99.94% 51.39% 9.86% 109.58
Angel Cabrera 95.70% 46.11% 8.76% 106.17
Charles Howell III 100.00% 86.40% 11.74% 105.16
Y.E. Yang 100.00% 64.93% 9.84% 103.46
Rory Sabbatini 100.00% 52.61% 8.68% 102.87
Paul Goydos 100.00% 39.09% 7.92% 99.37
Justin Leonard 100.00% 52.07% 8.94% 94.70
Jason Dufner 100.00% 56.25% 7.50% 79.52
Stewart Cink 100.00% 73.27% 8.70% 79.26
Charlie Wi 100.00% 69.29% 8.38% 79.15
D.J. Trahan 100.00% 42.99% 6.34% 72.06
Chad Campbell 100.00% 38.65% 6.32% 69.81
Pat Perez 99.14% 40.71% 6.46% 69.30
Marc Leishman 100.00% 72.07% 7.62% 68.18
Vaughn Taylor 100.00% 97.34% 8.12% 67.92
Davis Love III 54.37% 27.47% 5.66% 61.62
Matt Jones 100.00% 50.45% 5.92% 59.34
Heath Slocum 100.00% 72.63% 6.80% 59.21
Kevin Sutherland 72.39% 34.69% 5.12% 55.71
Stuart Appleby 100.00% 100.00% 7.54% 50.51
Ben Curtis 44.79% 20.06% 4.34% 49.79
D.A. Points 99.76% 30.39% 4.16% 47.15
Tom Gillis 100.00% 41.99% 4.82% 46.67
John Rollins 100.00% 47.81% 4.64% 46.26
Boo Weekley 96.26% 28.39% 4.04% 45.60
J.J. Henry 100.00% 46.35% 4.56% 42.83
Blake Adams 83.16% 25.27% 3.84% 41.99
John Senden 54.95% 25.45% 3.66% 38.38
Brian Davis 100.00% 81.04% 4.70% 38.29
Tim Petrovic 98.68% 30.37% 3.78% 38.22
Steve Elkington 100.00% 37.53% 3.78% 37.14
Chad Collins 79.40% 23.78% 3.18% 33.80
Shaun Micheel 100.00% 37.05% 3.62% 33.42
Kevin Streelman 42.77% 16.56% 2.42% 27.84
Jonathan Byrd 40.09% 14.50% 2.44% 27.50
Kevin Stadler 26.37% 8.54% 2.04% 26.54
Jerry Kelly 55.65% 19.34% 2.80% 26.34
Jimmy Walker 100.00% 21.06% 2.24% 25.56
Spencer Levin 100.00% 52.59% 2.94% 25.44
Alex Cejka 44.49% 13.48% 2.24% 24.54
Chris Couch 41.17% 13.96% 2.40% 24.34
Aaron Baddeley 43.89% 15.14% 1.96% 22.74
Bob Estes 41.63% 14.98% 2.18% 22.60
Webb Simpson 44.41% 15.34% 1.98% 22.32
Garrett Willis 86.70% 20.00% 2.36% 22.27
Jeff Maggert 31.55% 9.38% 1.78% 20.11
Briny Baird 41.71% 13.60% 1.68% 19.56
Greg Chalmers 99.98% 31.47% 2.08% 18.25
Woody Austin 37.15% 12.36% 1.88% 18.14
Josh Teater 59.87% 14.50% 1.74% 17.84
Nathan Green 24.20% 6.66% 1.46% 17.55
Ryuji Imada 36.09% 11.10% 1.48% 16.64
Troy Matteson 36.31% 11.72% 1.82% 16.38
Robert Garrigus 22.66% 6.32% 1.50% 16.16
Derek Lamely 39.65% 10.90% 1.42% 16.07
Kris Blanks 99.94% 18.88% 1.62% 15.76
Matt Bettencourt 32.81% 8.38% 1.24% 14.28
Andres Romero 26.85% 7.46% 1.28% 13.71
John Merrick 33.57% 9.86% 1.24% 13.02
J.P. Hayes 29.79% 7.62% 1.18% 12.70
Michael Letzig 27.77% 8.38% 1.34% 12.62
Alex Prugh 95.56% 16.82% 1.18% 11.22
Chris Riley 79.16% 20.08% 1.28% 11.03
Martin Laird 38.19% 9.84% 0.94% 9.74
Cameron Beckman 28.41% 7.00% 0.84% 7.86
Joe Ogilvie 33.31% 9.16% 0.80% 7.74
Bill Lunde 28.13% 6.88% 0.72% 7.36
Dean Wilson 31.89% 7.72% 0.80% 7.31
Graham Delaet 20.94% 4.12% 0.50% 3.50
David Duval 12.28% 1.66% 0.12% 1.14
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