PGA CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS ROUND 4

10,000 simulations, Obviously includes the chances of going to a playoff which is around 19%.

Player win alone win in playoff playoff total wins
Nick Watney 45.62% 5.98% 12.53% 51.60% -107
Dustin Johnson 9.43% 2.50% 5.46% 11.93% 738
Rory McIlroy 8.48% 2.79% 5.93% 11.27% 787
Jim Furyk 3.38% 1.47% 3.02% 4.85% 1962
Jason Day 3.26% 1.16% 2.77% 4.42% 2162
Martin Kaymer 2.87% 1.20% 3.12% 4.07% 2357
Zach Johnson 1.89% 0.91% 2.42% 2.80% 3471
W.C. Liang 1.40% 0.42% 1.39% 1.82% 5395
Jason Dufner 1.17% 0.45% 1.19% 1.62% 6073
Steve Elkington 0.75% 0.39% 1.17% 1.14% 8672
Matt Kuchar 0.67% 0.46% 0.98% 1.13% 8750
Bryce Molder 0.66% 0.34% 0.70% 1.00% 9900
Bubba Watson 0.57% 0.29% 0.79% 0.86% 11528
Steve Stricker 0.23% 0.11% 0.33% 0.34% 29312
Ernie Els 0.14% 0.16% 0.26% 0.30% 33233
Simon Dyson 0.12% 0.03% 0.18% 0.15% 66567
Bo Van Pelt 0.08% 0.02% 0.06% 0.10% 99900

Nick Watney: Watney is basically Dustin Johnson at the US Open. I think they are underrating the ability of first time winners to hold on. It’s not like this hasn’t happened recently either with McDowell outplaying bigger names at Pebble, YE Yang last year, Oosthuizen at St. Andrews, even Lucas Glover at Bethpage Black.

Rory McIlroy: When I looked at Rory’s level of play over the past three years he is almost identical to Nick Watney. I mean like ridiculously similar. At 21, Rory might go further, but realizing his potential won’t all happen at once. It would be interesting, given these career paths to see the odds if the names were reversed. I’m willing to say there might be a “-” in front of Rory’s line.

Dustin Johnson Thought there might be some side effects from DJ’s horrendous showing on Sunday at Pebble, where he literally got every bad break possible, but it appears not.

The Rest: Furyk and Day are decent options, but I really think Watney is the way to go. If you’re looking for uber-longshots Dufner is probably the best under 100-1. Steve Stricker isn’t terribly likely to win tomorrow, but he’s show the ability to go low elsewhere and is probably better than 1000-1 if he can get a lot of help.

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