A couple of assumptions here:
1-Assumes that the difficulty of the course will be the same for the remaining first round holes tomorrow as it was for the ones played today. If it’s easier the guys on the course now are more likely to win, if it’s harder they are less likely.
2-For Tiger I used a 2-year average of around -.9, That’s below his average in majors so far this season, but well above his actual average. The books, with 10-1, seem to be basically in the same place they were before. I think there might be some merit to the Tiger has been screwing around in non-major arguments and Tiger might be around -.9 if that’s the case. Still, I can’t make a solid argument that Tiger should be noticeably better than 10-1.
|Charles Howell III||54||1.19%||8307|
This takes what a player has already shot, and projects their average over the remaining holes based on the difficulty so far. Tiger is in first because, on average, using the ranking above he would have the lowest score. That does not mean this score will be the winning number.
|Charles Howell III||288.33||10|
Phil: Phil’s number is a flat out joke right now. Look he has a great short game, especially chipping, there is no doubt. Scrambling the way he did early was nothing more that really good fortune. He could definitely turn his ball-striking around over the next few days, but his score today was easily the best it could have been.
Jim Furyk: I’m not sure what Jim Furyk has to do to get respect. He is debatebably the third best(ahead of Mickelson, not Stricker) golfer in the world, has won a major, has won twice on tour this year, and is ahead of Tiger, Phil, Rory and a ton of other contenders.
Steve Stricker: According to my numbers he is actually in slightly worse shape than to start the tournament. He’s still better than 25-1, but I don’t think he’s a better look now than before the tournament.