PGA CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND 1

A couple of assumptions here:

1-Assumes that the difficulty of the course will be the same for the remaining first round holes tomorrow as it was for the ones played today. If it’s easier the guys on the course now are more likely to win, if it’s harder they are less likely.

2-For Tiger I used a 2-year average of around -.9, That’s below his average in majors so far this season, but well above his actual average. The books, with 10-1, seem to be basically in the same place they were before. I think there might be some merit to the Tiger has been screwing around in non-major arguments and Tiger might be around -.9 if that’s the case. Still, I can’t make a solid argument that Tiger should be noticeably better than 10-1.

ODDS

Tiger Woods 54 12.98% 670
Jim Furyk 54 6.66% 1402
Nick Watney 61 5.99% 1569
Ernie Els 58 5.73% 1644
Steve Stricker 59 4.99% 1903
Francesco Molinari 54 4.14% 2315
Bubba Watson 54 4.09% 2348
Phil Mickelson 61 3.43% 2814
Ryan Moore 54 3.14% 3080
Matt Kuchar* 58 3.10% 3129
Jason Day 54 2.14% 4570
Camilo Villegas 54 1.59% 6193
Paul Casey 54 1.45% 6785
Michael Sim 54 1.27% 7758
Zach Johnson 60 1.26% 7811
Charles Howell III 54 1.19% 8307
Dustin Johnson 58 1.18% 8349
Tim Clark 62 1.15% 8589
Angel Cabrera 62 1.10% 8963
Kevin Na* 63 1.10% 9022
Rory McIlroy 59 1.01% 9847
Kenny Perry 59 0.98% 10083
Peter Hanson* 62 0.85% 11683
Ian Poulter 54 0.77% 12807
Gonzalo Fernandez-Casta 56 0.69% 14433
Luke Donald 54 0.65% 15237
Robert Karlsson* 64 0.61% 16251
J.B. Holmes 54 0.61% 16306
Justin Rose 62 0.50% 19738
Lucas Glover 60 0.48% 20921
John Merrick 54 0.47% 21229
Hunter Mahan 62 0.45% 22200
Thongchai Jaidee 54 0.41% 24237
Rickie Fowler 54 0.38% 26038
Martin Laird 54 0.36% 27339
Brian Gay 54 0.35% 28288
Ryan Palmer 54 0.34% 28931
Martin Kaymer 54 0.34% 29046
Rhys Davies 54 0.34% 29182


TRUE LEADERBOARD

This takes what a player has already shot, and projects their average over the remaining holes based on the difficulty so far. Tiger is in first because, on average, using the ranking above he would have the lowest score. That does not mean this score will be the winning number.

Tiger Woods 284.23 1
Jim Furyk 285.76 2
Francesco Molinari 286.06 3
Nick Watney 286.28 4
Ernie Els 286.34 5
Steve Stricker 286.80 6
Bubba Watson 287.07 7
Matt Kuchar* 287.09 8
Phil Mickelson 287.83 9
Charles Howell III 288.33 10
Jason Day 288.33 11
Ryan Moore 288.53 12
Camilo Villegas 288.68 13
Peter Hanson* 289.15 14
Paul Casey 289.15 15
Tim Clark 289.23 16
Angel Cabrera 289.24 17
Zach Johnson 289.24 18
Rory McIlroy 289.31 19
Luke Donald 289.44 20
Martin Kaymer 289.52 21
Michael Sim 289.70 22
Thongchai Jaidee 289.82 23
Gonzalo Fernandez-Casta 289.99 24
Dustin Johnson 290.02 25

Phil: Phil’s number is a flat out joke right now. Look he has a great short game, especially chipping, there is no doubt. Scrambling the way he did early was nothing more that really good fortune. He could definitely turn his ball-striking around over the next few days, but his score today was easily the best it could have been.

Jim Furyk: I’m not sure what Jim Furyk has to do to get respect. He is debatebably the third best(ahead of Mickelson, not Stricker) golfer in the world, has won a major, has won twice on tour this year, and is ahead of Tiger, Phil, Rory and a ton of other contenders.

Steve Stricker
: According to my numbers he is actually in slightly worse shape than to start the tournament. He’s still better than 25-1, but I don’t think he’s a better look now than before the tournament.

Darkhorses:
Kenny Perry
Michael Sim
Zach Johnson

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2 Comments

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2 responses to “PGA CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND 1

  1. Kunk

    Update on Mitch’s chances? Can we add him to the darkhorse list yet?

  2. I was getting ready to, then disaster struck on 18. #MitchLowe made a 7. Going to need to fire a -2 on the front nine(His back) To make the cut probably.

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