RBC CANADIAN OPEN AND NORDIC MASTERS

Going forward I want to use these preview posts more to look into certain things that could affect value on a given week, rather than just randomly selecting players and writing about them (though I will continue with some of that) I have a few ideas of my own for “research projects” but if you have anything you would like to see, please feel free to send them along.

If you listen to the MSM, you would come away with the obvious opinion that majors matter more. Why this is, no one knows. According to Curtis Strange and people like him, majors take an extra amount of preparation, and are more mentally challenging than a regular tournament. That seems like a load of garbage to me, but traveling across the ocean one week, then back the next week, could definitely impact someone’s ability to play golf.

To look at this I compared the British Open and Canadian Open(as well as US Bank Champ w/Canadian Open (SSS, I know)) over the past two years. What I got was hardly conclusive.

open avg canadian av 2 yr total avg
2008 -0.0571 -0.0013 0.0087
2009 0.0028 -0.0266 -0.1672
total -0.0279 -0.0138 -0.1560
us bank av canadian av 2 yr total avg
2008 0.0172 0.0369 0.1125
2009 0.0642 0.0973 0.1365
total 0.0394 0.0644 0.1241

As you can see performance varies very little from the Open Championship to the Canadian Open. Considering that players who had played in both tournaments averaged around 78 rounds per year in each, that’s not a huge sample size and any difference is most likely random noise. What is interesting is that players from 2 years in each of these tournaments underperformed their 2-year averages. That’s not as terrible as it sounds (in ~78 tournaments, underperfoming that much would be in the 33rd of so percentile of performace), but it is still lower.

There was a much bigger sample size from the US Bank Championship to the RBC Canadian Open. There were about 4-5 times as many similar rounds as there were with the Open Championship. Once again, players played worse in the Canadian Open then they did the week before. The differences between the performances were smaller, but possibly more meaningful when comparing around 300 rounds. Then again, players who played in Reno-Tahoe this year will be traveling from a different location to a new venue at the Canadian Open, so who knows how much to read into this.

The crazy thing is, players playing both tournaments played below their two year averages. I’m not sure why this is and there are tons of conclusions you could draw. First and foremost, you have to consider this a small sample size.

Secondly, it might tell us more about the type of players who play in each events. Maybe playing in back-to-back weeks is the disadvantage and there are certain types of players who play in each event. The really good players obviously skip Canada after playing the British for the most part. Good and Moderate players might go to Canada, but would be less likely to play in the British Open(especially US Tour based moderately good players) or in the horrible fielded secondary event. Then the generally below average players fill out the field in the secondary event and have a disadvantage against a portion of players who are better, but not good enough to play the Open and took a week off.

I back tested this and players who didn’t play in either the British Open or the US Bank Championship and did play in the Canadian Open. While it did show a difference in quality of players (-.15 average for Open and Canadian both, around average for just Canadian, and .12 average for US Bank and Canadian Open in back-to-back weeks) there results were quite mixed as well.

In the end, I’m not sure. I wouldn’t downgrade anyone who played last week in one tournament over the other, I might consider a small advantage for players who took the week off. But, if that’s your reason for liking a player it’s definitely not enough.

600 words is enough, so here are the top 25 players from each of the tournaments:

RBC CANADIAN OPEN

Paul Casey -0.516 157 0.950 6.3700% 1470
Retief Goosen -0.457 190 0.932 4.6348% 2058
Camilo Villegas -0.458 185 0.904 4.1877% 2288
Hunter Mahan -0.433 180 0.919 3.9488% 2432
Luke Donald -0.457 166 0.862 3.4523% 2797
Sean O’Hair -0.422 173 0.897 3.4103% 2832
Matt Kuchar -0.448 161 0.862 3.3024% 2928
Tim Clark -0.424 195 0.882 3.2036% 3022
Kevin Na -0.336 182 0.970 3.1164% 3109
Mike Weir -0.271 175 0.993 2.5509% 3820
Fred Couples -0.266 71 0.970 2.2322% 4380
Charley Hoffman -0.259 193 0.950 1.9439% 5044
Stephen Ames -0.296 156 0.911 1.9064% 5146
Scott Verplank -0.301 180 0.870 1.5420% 6385
Brandt Snedeker -0.215 178 0.944 1.4969% 6580
Bill Haas -0.251 180 0.899 1.3816% 7138
Chad Campbell -0.224 184 0.917 1.3403% 7361
Bryce Molder -0.238 174 0.900 1.2977% 7606
Chad Collins -0.124 188 0.987 1.1808% 8369
Jason Bohn -0.184 146 0.930 1.1547% 8560
Blake Adams -0.119 148 0.984 1.1307% 8744
Aaron Baddeley -0.104 157 0.995 1.1225% 8809
Pat Perez -0.240 168 0.875 1.1103% 8907
Charlie Wi -0.223 187 0.883 1.0605% 9330

NORDIC MASTERS

Dustin Johnson -0.371 164 0.986 8.1110% 1133
Rickie Fowler -0.214 100 1.086 5.9506% 1581
Robert Karlsson -0.284 137 0.921 4.6055% 2071
K.J. Choi -0.312 168 0.887 4.5967% 2075
Louis Oosthuizen -0.247 167 0.925 3.9380% 2439
Peter Hanson -0.327 181 0.829 3.8388% 2505
Rory Sabbatini -0.180 198 0.993 3.8223% 2516
Soren Kjeldsen -0.223 191 0.889 2.9756% 3261
Alexander Noren -0.120 172 0.968 2.6066% 3736
Graeme Storm 0.037 192 1.074 2.0554% 4765
Troy Matteson -0.069 179 0.960 1.9456% 5040
Robert Rock -0.004 187 1.020 1.9171% 5116
Brett Rumford 0.057 169 1.076 1.8929% 5183
Danny Willett -0.090 151 0.931 1.8578% 5283
Anthony Wall -0.184 176 0.840 1.8489% 5309
Jamie Donaldson -0.088 170 0.921 1.7311% 5677
Fredrik Andersson Hed 0.068 94 1.055 1.6189% 6077
Johan Edfors -0.052 168 0.935 1.5493% 6354
Gregory Bourdy -0.080 186 0.892 1.4038% 7024
James Morrison 0.164 46 1.104 1.3311% 7412
Richard Green -0.180 143 0.792 1.3148% 7506
Andrew Dodt 0.009 64 0.956 1.2656% 7802
Edoardo Molinari -0.126 111 0.831 1.2316% 8020
Nicolas Colsaerts 0.155 47 1.081 1.2314% 8021
Peter Lawrie -0.049 182 0.886 1.1235% 8800
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3 Comments

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3 responses to “RBC CANADIAN OPEN AND NORDIC MASTERS

  1. Not that it makes much difference, but Ben Crane’s not in the field this week.

  2. Thanks. Good call. I usually copy these down from Yahoo on Sunday night and 11 players have withdrawn after the 5:00 pm deadline on Friday.

  3. Canadian Open odds updated with current field.

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