WEATHER ADJUSTED LEADERBOARD

Today was absolutely an insane weather day. Somewhere around Rory McIlroy appears to have been absolutely screwed with a course that played around 77.5 strokes. After that, the effects of the weather seemed to taper off a bit and early in the morning the course was downright easy.

It seems crazy to say, but guys at even par or +1 and still on the course are in decent shape. They’ll be able to come out early tomorrow and play in what should be(based on the first two days) benign conditions then go out earliest of the third round tee times(last in, first out). In that exchange alone, it’s not hard to imagine they will be playing a course that is 4 strokes easier than Louis Oosthuizen and the other leaders. If Uzi has a bad round, then they are right back in the mix with almost every other player in the field.

Weather adjusted scores for the players who have completed two rounds:

Louis Oosthuizen 65.48 71.35 136.827
Nick Watney 68.27 69.88 138.152
Retief Goosen 67.77 70.40 138.164
Sean O’Hair 68.29 70.02 138.308
Lee Westwood 66.25 72.15 138.392
Paul Casey 68.39 70.42 138.812
Graeme McDowell 70.09 68.88 138.977
Tiger Woods 68.28 71.08 139.360
Martin Kaymer 68.42 70.95 139.371
Miguel Angel Jimenez 71.25 68.15 139.392
Peter Hanson 65.54 74.70 140.237
Heath Slocum 67.66 73.19 140.849
John Daly 67.17 73.91 141.080
Marcel Siem 67.97 73.12 141.092
Trevor Immelman 69.23 71.87 141.106
Ricky Barnes 67.93 73.61 141.544
Sergio Garcia 69.93 71.63 141.568
Thomas Aiken 69.05 72.55 141.600
Danny Chia 66.03 75.73 141.763
Andrew Coltart 67.17 74.91 142.080
Toru Taniguchi 69.81 72.30 142.103
Robert Karlsson 68.81 73.30 142.103
Rory McIlroy 64.28 77.90 142.183
Lucas Glover 68.28 73.90 142.183
Mark Calcavecchia 70.57 71.73 142.300
Camilo Villegas 69.28 73.08 142.360
Adam Scott 71.25 71.15 142.392
Ryo Ishikawa 69.26 73.15 142.417
Tom Lehman 71.28 71.62 142.898
Simon Dyson 70.08 73.00 143.076
John Senden 69.03 74.05 143.082
Dustin Johnson 68.81 74.30 143.103
Phil Mickelson 71.77 71.40 143.164
Ian Poulter 72.29 70.97 143.261
Y.E. Yang 66.93 76.61 143.544
Richard S. Johnson 71.05 72.55 143.600
Alvaro Quiros 71.67 71.99 143.668
Edoardo Molinari 67.60 76.17 143.765
Vijay Singh 68.05 75.94 143.990
Steve Marino 69.91 74.20 144.109
Robert Allenby 70.27 73.88 144.152
Colin Montgomerie 72.77 71.40 144.164
Hunter Mahan 70.29 73.93 144.219
Stewart Cink 72.29 71.97 144.261
Ross Fisher 69.29 75.02 144.308
Ignacio Garrido 69.38 74.98 144.360
Zach Johnson 70.42 73.95 144.371
Gareth Maybin 69.46 75.02 144.482
Steve Stricker 69.93 74.63 144.568
D.A. Points 69.03 75.73 144.763
Bubba Watson 72.24 72.74 144.983
Robert Rock 69.03 76.05 145.082
Soren Kjeldsen 73.20 71.89 145.090
Charl Schwartzel 72.25 72.87 145.126
Oliver Wilson 69.27 75.88 145.152
Shane Lowry 68.38 76.98 145.360
Eric Chun 69.42 75.95 145.371
Tom Watson 74.26 71.15 145.417
Bradley Dredge 66.17 79.27 145.442
Ben Crane 70.05 75.55 145.600
Simon Khan 74.05 71.94 145.990
Paul Goydos 71.25 74.87 146.120
Thomas Bjorn 71.29 74.93 146.219
Jason Bohn 72.86 73.36 146.222
Justin Rose 71.28 75.08 146.360
Rhys Davies 71.60 75.17 146.765
Rickie Fowler 78.39 68.42 146.812
Jeff Overton 73.48 73.35 146.827
Ryuichi Oda 77.13 69.95 147.075
Seung-yul Noh 73.17 73.91 147.080
Ross McGowan 69.23 77.87 147.106
Jean Hugo 73.25 73.87 147.120
Tim Petrovic 68.25 78.87 147.120
Gonzalo Fernandez-Casta 73.25 73.87 147.126
Ernie Els 70.29 76.97 147.261
Josh Cunliffe 71.81 75.60 147.411
Luke Donald 72.93 74.61 147.544
Marc Leishman 73.28 74.62 147.898
Kevin Na 70.28 77.62 147.898
K.J. Choi 74.24 73.74 147.983
Scott Verplank 72.05 75.94 147.990
Todd Hamilton 73.13 74.95 148.075
Paul Streeter 73.46 75.02 148.482
Justin Leonard 74.60 74.17 148.765
Darren Fichardt 71.66 77.19 148.849
Bill Haas 74.03 75.05 149.082
Kurt Barnes 72.86 76.36 149.222
Peter Senior 73.57 75.73 149.300
Yuta Ikeda 73.29 76.02 149.308
Padraig Harrington 74.26 75.15 149.417
Hiroyuki Fujita 73.93 75.63 149.568
Angel Cabrera 72.39 77.42 149.812
Colm Moriarty 72.48 77.35 149.827
Jim Furyk 76.09 73.88 149.977
Geoff Ogilvy 71.09 78.88 149.977
George McNeill 74.59 75.48 150.064
Jae-Bum Park 72.59 77.48 150.064
Soren Hansen 73.08 77.00 150.076
Loren Roberts 73.97 76.12 150.092
Paul Lawrie 69.91 80.20 150.109
Tim Clark 72.28 77.90 150.183
Ben Curtis 75.54 74.70 150.237
Hirofumi Miyase 71.38 78.98 150.360
Tyrrell Hatton 74.81 75.60 150.411
Victor Dubuisson 78.24 72.74 150.983
Shunsuke Sonoda 75.29 75.93 151.219
Brian Gay 69.46 82.02 151.482
Gary Clark 76.03 75.73 151.763
Jose Manuel Lara 77.66 74.19 151.849
Alexander Noren 74.13 77.95 152.075
Nick Faldo 73.20 78.89 152.090
Mathew Goggin 74.97 77.12 152.092
Francesco Molinari 73.54 78.70 152.237
Koumei Oda 74.17 78.27 152.442
Thomas Levet 73.91 79.20 153.109
Ryan Moore 71.25 81.87 153.126
Glen Day 75.81 77.60 153.411
Jason Dufner 74.08 80.00 154.076
David Duval 78.23 75.87 154.106
Sandy Lyle 75.17 79.27 154.442
Katsumasa Miyamoto 76.67 77.99 154.668
Jerry Kelly 78.67 76.99 155.668
Martin Laird 75.20 80.89 156.090
Anders Hansen 77.57 78.73 156.300
Laurie Canter 78.86 78.36 157.222
Simon Edwards 75.59 84.48 160.064

A few notes:
-The average player teeing off at 6 am had a bigger advantage than Tiger Woods over and average pro in similar conditions.

-The time value on one shot today was basically a half an hour. Meaning if tomorrow plays like today and your birdie moved you up in tee times more than 30 minutes it probably wasn’t worth making the birdie in the first place. Yesterday, which seems like a more reasonable estimate, it was worth 2 or 3 hours.

-I’m going to try and throw this together into some kind of odds post later, but no promises.

-Here’s a graph of the weather. For scores, 0 means you played to your average, negative is better, positive is worse than average. Time is kept in terms of hours after 6:30 am St. Andrews time:

-There should be tremendous value in knowing the tee times tomorrow. I’m assuming books will throw out 3rd round lines without knowing pairings. This means they’ll take to similar players with a similar score and match them up. Since no one has any idea how much the weather has an impact on this tournament so far, if you can find guys that will likely be an hour apart, that’s a great match-up that I bet the books aren’t really factoring in.

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1 Comment

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One response to “WEATHER ADJUSTED LEADERBOARD

  1. I found this funny:

    lol – wow – I haven’t heard of “SABR-metrics” (that’s The Society for American Baseball Research) in ages ! A true baseball fantasy stat-gasm. Amazing stuff if you happen to believe that every situation can be made “equal”, and that under different circumstances, the situations faced by the players would be played the same way…which isn’t true. But it’s all fantasy – not something the lads at Ladbrokes are going to take into consideration for their betting lines.

    Access more at WeiUnderPar.com: http://www.weiunderpar.com/post/calculating-who-has-been-lucky-who-has-gotten-hosed-by-the-weather/comment-page-1#comment-4994#ixzz0txGxVAIg

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