The odds are posted at the bottom of the post directly below this one.
Huge X Factor
The weather. There is almost no doubt the weather played a big role in round 1. It should play a big role in round 2. The question is when. Forecasts say the wind will be up, according to tv in the morning, and if that is the case look out. The projections below assume equal weather/conditions/scoring for everyone in the field, but who knows how accurate that will turn out to be. If you think you have a better forecast, feel free to adjust accordingly.
I’m giving Rory credit for an apparently ridiculous competitive history at the old course and his upside. When you factor that in as much as possible, he’s still worse than Westwood, Mickelson, Stricker and Furyk and a lot less than Tiger. Rory has probably as good a chance as anyone(Kaymer maybe?) to be second best after Phil in the future, but not right now, and a four shot advantage isn’t as big as you think with 3 rounds and Tiger chasing.
Lee Westwood Lee is the biggest loser from round one in my opinion. If he had teed off at 8am local time he’s very close to Rory. Instead, he’s 4 back. Westwood, is a solid 3rd option in my opinion, but the odds on him seem ridiculous.
I missed a lot of post game reaction, but it seems like Tiger is being forgotten. If the weather plays out like the omnipotent Curtis Strange and Paul Azinger thought it would than Tiger and Rory are in great shape. I’m about 95% convinced Tiger is screwing around in regular tour events at this point and 100% convinced my rankings are solid on Tiger. Honestly, I can’t see any reason why Tiger shouldn’t be at least a small favorite at this point.
God Bless America
This kind of garbage screwed me in the Masters and played out well in the US Open, but I feel like you can still get a great price on Americans. It’s important to remember that the afternooners are likely to be worse off because of weather(but really who knows?), but I think this list of Yanks is a good idea:
Let’s paint St. Andrews red, white and blue, boys.