THE WEATHER AT ST. ANDREWS

If you watched any of the coverage today, the weather was undoubtedly a big factor. Or, was it?

To find out I grouped the players by tee times and scores and did a little scatter plot. The time starts at 0 hour, which is cool because that’s exactly when Steve Marino teed off. After that I added 11/60th all the way through the field, except for the mid-day break when there was 31 minutes between two groups. Basically, First group starts at 0 hours and it progresses from there:

Now, obviously this could be because better players teed off earlier and worse players teed off later. So, the next step I took was to compare the players z-score today to their 2 year average z-score. The results were similar:

Now, it’s important to remember that this doesn’t necessarily mean the weather made it harder as the day got on. There could be other factors like golfers are more suited to teeing of at 8 a.m. local time then 1 p.m(This at least looks like part of the case in the morning among extremely early tee times). Granted, given how the weather played out today, I think it’s safe to assume that the weather in the afternoon is to blame

So, what kind of impact did this have on the tournament?

Well, Let’s take Phil Mickelson who teed off about 7 2/3 hours after hour 0. Plugging that into the equation for the scores, Phil was approximately playing a course with an average of 73. The average for the day was 71.7, so Phil played a course that was 1.2 strokes harder than average. Tiger, on the other hand, teed off at one of the best times. At 2.5 hours after the first tee times the course average played to a near minimum of 70.3, picking up a whopping 1.4 strokes on the field. To be sure, Tiger played well and Phil played poorly, but their respective conditions made it more dramatic.

Finally, here’s a look at what the leaderboard would be like if everyone teed off in a massive 156 man group.

Rory McIlroy 64.28 1
Louis Oosthuizen 65.48 2
Peter Hanson 65.54 3
Danny Chia 66.03 4
Bradley Dredge 66.17 5
Lee Westwood 66.25 6
Steven Tiley 66.80 7
Y.E. Yang 66.93 8
Andrew Coltart 67.17 9
John Daly 67.17 10
Edoardo Molinari 67.60 11
Heath Slocum 67.66 12
Retief Goosen 67.77 13
Ricky Barnes 67.93 14
Marcel Siem 67.97 15
Vijay Singh 68.05 16
Alejandro Canizares 68.05 17
Fredrik Andersson Hed 68.15 18
Tim Petrovic 68.25 19
Nick Watney 68.27 20
Tiger Woods 68.28 21
Lucas Glover 68.28 22
Sean O’Hair 68.29 23
Shane Lowry 68.38 24
Paul Casey 68.39 25

Over a long period of time, this stuff is just random and will even out. Over four rounds of golf, some players got a huge advantage. This is the same thing that happened at Bethpage last year, but guys like Westwood(four back) really should be 2 back all else equal and Kaymer(7 back) should be about 4 back.

Finally,

THE ODDS

Player PCT ODDS
Tiger Woods 23.26% 330
Rory McIlroy 12.31% 713
Lee Westwood 6.17% 1522
Sean O’Hair 2.96% 3284
Louis Oosthuizen 2.93% 3314
Nick Watney 2.88% 3367
Steve Stricker 2.69% 3616
Lucas Glover 2.54% 3830
Camilo Villegas 2.54% 3839
Paul Casey 2.30% 4252
Peter Hanson 2.03% 4833
Henrik Stenson 2.02% 4844
Retief Goosen 1.74% 5644
Dustin Johnson 1.68% 5848
Ernie Els 1.66% 5909
Hunter Mahan 1.63% 6046
Y.E. Yang 1.55% 6349
Ross Fisher 1.49% 6608
Robert Allenby 1.32% 7461
Vijay Singh 1.17% 8473
Kevin Na 0.88% 11254
Bo Van Pelt 0.88% 11328
John Daly 0.86% 11521
Justin Rose 0.86% 11538
Ryo Ishikawa 0.83% 12002
Bradley Dredge 0.81% 12265
Fredrik Andersson Hed 0.79% 12496
Robert Karlsson 0.76% 13063
Steve Marino 0.75% 13289
John Senden 0.73% 13560
Ryan Moore 0.73% 13562
Ian Poulter 0.64% 15421
J.B. Holmes 0.60% 16507
Ricky Barnes 0.60% 16564
Phil Mickelson 0.60% 16687
Kenny Perry 0.60% 16695
Sergio Garcia 0.57% 17416
Oliver Wilson 0.51% 19446
Marcel Siem 0.50% 19788
Robert Rock 0.50% 19881

This assumes everyone will have equal weather for four days, but we’ll see.

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