2010 ATT NATIONAL

PLAYER Z-SC ROUNDS ST DEV PCT ODDS
Tiger Woods -1.010 87 0.883 24.0727% 315
Jim Furyk -0.647 175 0.874 6.1683% 1521
Robert Allenby -0.469 194 0.872 2.5429% 3833
Dustin Johnson -0.357 166 0.986 2.5281% 3855
Nick Watney -0.376 192 0.918 1.9790% 4953
Sean O’Hair -0.386 168 0.907 1.9729% 4969
Lucas Glover -0.343 181 0.938 1.8538% 5294
Rickie Fowler -0.203 88 1.052 1.6808% 5849
Bo Van Pelt -0.287 214 0.962 1.5890% 6193
Justin Rose -0.261 186 0.978 1.5114% 6516
Davis Love III -0.299 162 0.925 1.3613% 7246
Steve Marino -0.338 211 0.884 1.3105% 7530
Ryan Moore -0.175 167 1.028 1.2911% 7645
David Toms -0.401 169 0.825 1.2869% 7670
Brian Gay -0.254 206 0.944 1.1913% 8294
Paul Goydos -0.040 166 1.131 1.1716% 8435
Vijay Singh -0.316 139 0.888 1.1809% 8368
Ben Crane -0.324 179 0.878 1.1576% 8539
J.B. Holmes -0.161 168 1.016 1.1257% 8783
Scott Verplank -0.331 172 0.862 1.0860% 9108
Jeff Overton -0.197 197 0.977 1.0685% 9259
Charley Hoffman -0.238 188 0.935 1.0278% 9629
Jason Day -0.222 150 0.944 0.9961% 9939
D.J. Trahan -0.216 184 0.947 0.9813% 10091
Y.E. Yang -0.210 192 0.952 0.9789% 10115
Justin Leonard -0.297 179 0.868 0.9142% 10838
Brandt Snedeker -0.202 176 0.944 0.8920% 11111
Mathew Goggin -0.045 165 1.073 0.8742% 11339
Kevin Streelman -0.194 204 0.935 0.7984% 12425
Jason Dufner -0.231 189 0.902 0.7870% 12606
Bryce Molder -0.228 176 0.901 0.7639% 12991
Chad Collins -0.112 186 0.996 0.7603% 13053
Scott Piercy 0.024 182 1.103 0.7406% 13402
Pat Perez -0.264 164 0.865 0.7272% 13651
John Senden -0.272 204 0.855 0.7062% 14061
Aaron Baddeley -0.079 145 1.009 0.6920% 14351
Matt Jones -0.052 159 1.029 0.6814% 14577
Blake Adams -0.145 148 0.953 0.6830% 14540
Fredrik Jacobson -0.239 136 0.875 0.6689% 14851
Kevin Sutherland -0.273 187 0.846 0.6633% 14975
D.A. Points -0.066 193 1.004 0.6193% 16048
Charles Howell III -0.290 199 0.823 0.6160% 16133
Kevin Stadler -0.057 160 1.005 0.5958% 16685
Andres Romero -0.020 149 1.029 0.5726% 17365
John Mallinger -0.036 169 1.015 0.5652% 17592
Nathan Green 0.088 205 1.110 0.5596% 17771
Briny Baird -0.157 186 0.918 0.5618% 17700
George McNeill -0.183 169 0.897 0.5594% 17777
Robert Garrigus -0.102 157 0.957 0.5451% 18245
Jerry Kelly -0.154 187 0.917 0.5458% 18222
Michael Allen -0.193 149 0.886 0.5446% 18261
Alex Cejka -0.014 176 1.022 0.5281% 18837
Tim Petrovic -0.101 192 0.954 0.5265% 18894
Boo Weekley -0.141 165 0.918 0.5092% 19540
Josh Teater 0.006 95 1.031 0.5031% 19777

A couple of notes:
-People seem to like the rankings so I’ll keep posting them. I think it caused confusion last week, where people looked at the odds to win, saw a big difference and figured it might be good for head-to-head. I’m not sure, I use mostly the z-score to compare two players, while when figuring out who is going to win, the standard deviation comes into play more. Think about it like winning a golf tournament requires a great performance, an average player with a large standard deviation has a better chance of shooting really low(and really high) over four rounds to win(or DFL), but that doesn’t necessarily make it better head-to-head.

-Haven’t put in last week’s scores yet. Shouldn’t make too big a difference, but if you want to fade someone who played well last week, I’d consider that.

-New course this year.

Tiger Woods
I adjusted Tiger down again, although slightly higher than the U.S. Open, to be more in line with the odds. At this point, as Tiger continues to get more practice and more into the routine of playing on tour, there is no way he doesn’t have upside. Tiger’s performance from the last 3 years is well above where I adjusted him, so even if he’s still less than 100%(probable) I think it’s pretty reasonable to assume there is still some value in El Tigre.

Justin Rose
I’m willing to give Rose a slight edge for his strong play last week that is not included above, but I have no reason to suspect he is anywhere near the top few favorites in the field. He’s basically played at the same level since 2004, with one good season in 2010 and one bad one in 2008. Rose seems to be at an age where most players should enter there prime, so I’ll give him credit for that, but it’s not enough to warrant less than 30-1.

Steve Marino
I could tell you by this price, Steve hasn’t finished in the top ten recently bringing out the “Best player who hasn’t won on tour yet” discussion again. Actually, he only has one top ten all season at the ATT Pebble Beach Pro Am. Steve’s 2010 is slightly down from a good 09, but overall I still like where he is and the ranking above is probably pretty good if not slightly low.

Haven’t really looked at the match-ups yet. If you have any questions feel free to ask.

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2 Comments

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2 responses to “2010 ATT NATIONAL

  1. JNS

    Between you posting this table and me posting this message, I think ~20 of the 23 golfers you implicitly recommended (biggest difference between your percentages and 5dimes odds) now have longer 5dimes odds. Is this common?

    If not, my theory is that people who follow percentages they see published on the internet had their 5dimes accounts cleaned out by Brazil, Spain, Argentina. Nate Silver was relatively high on Portugal, Chile, and Mexico, and anyone betting full Kelly on SPI would have had a rough second round.

  2. I’m not sure, sometimes 5 dimes will offer the whole field at like 145% when it first opens and eventually shift to something like 110%. If they were all small shifts, that’s probably the reason.

    As a rule of thumb, if you can wait until 8 or 9 the night before, you’ll get the best price on the random golfers. I put this table out before it.

    I doubt Nate Silver’s SPI had a huge effect. There were probably people who followed it, but I doubt anyone used it as a gold standard.

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