I should mention I took these down before everyone had finished, but there were like 4 people left on the course, they were all terrible and they were way off the lead. I don’t think it influences this in any meaningful way.
Rose is having a great 2010, which is driving his favorite status. He’s also, young and at an age where you could expect progress. That being said, 2010 is enough over any year I have on record, to suggest to me that whatever adjustment could reasonably be made is not close to warranting his lofty price right now.
Not a good price, but reasonably fair all things considered with him. Part of this is probably because 2010 is a slightly down year for him so far and he shot a low first round in Memphis a few weeks ago and disappeared.
I’ve had half on eye on him at most tournaments because based on my numbers he is always one of the best bets in the field. Of course, most of that is driven by a high standard deviation relative to players of his skill. Most of my high opinion is probably derived from what looks to be an above average 2008, which you would think is slightly less meaningful now. You could also argue that 2010 is way below average for Goggin, so they probably balance out. Based on 2 years, I still think low on Goggin, though inconsistent play leaves his standard deviation really high. I’d say he might be closer than 20-1, than what’s listed above, but I’m still high on Goggin.
Probably a pretty fair price on Vijay based on 2 years, but you could definitely make a case that Vijay has some upside as his 2009 and 2010 were marred by injuries and he has a notoriously strong work ethic. Plus, no one likes him because he can’t putt.
You can’t deny that Michael Sim’s 2009 was not among the 25 best in the world last year, regardless of what tour he played on. You can debate how much of an aberration that was. Looking at his whole career, 2009 definitely stands out as he was never really better than average in any other year. On top of that, he doesn’t stand out as the great ball-striker that usually is underrated. I’m not sure I’m buying 75-1(my numbers) at the moment, but I would love to be proved wrong, and I doubt 140-1, isn’t somewhat good.