RANKING THE TRAVELERS CHAMPIONSHIP FIELD

Got lazy this week and spent approximately zero minutes looking at the field. I did take some time to come up with these odds, though.

Player Z-score Rounds St Dev To WIN
Hunter Mahan -0.466 182 0.932 4.5061%
Padraig Harrington -0.486 175 0.882 4.0364%
Retief Goosen -0.442 184 0.929 3.9708%
Kenny Perry -0.392 185 0.972 3.7779%
Kevin Na -0.220 184 0.974 1.6687%
Matt Kuchar -0.428 163 0.866 2.7941%
Rickie Fowler -0.203 88 1.052 2.2647%
Bo Van Pelt -0.287 214 0.962 2.2056%
Ben Curtis -0.299 158 0.949 2.1799%
Justin Rose -0.261 186 0.978 2.0918%
David Toms -0.401 169 0.825 1.9058%
Michael Sim -0.223 133 0.988 1.8312%
Ryan Moore -0.175 167 1.028 1.7721%
Bubba Watson -0.299 156 0.908 1.7546%
Vijay Singh -0.316 139 0.888 1.7092%
Brian Gay -0.254 206 0.944 1.6868%
Scott Verplank -0.331 172 0.862 1.5957%
Jeff Overton -0.197 197 0.977 1.5035%
Adam Scott -0.134 147 1.032 1.4776%
Charley Hoffman -0.238 188 0.935 1.4706%
Bill Haas -0.269 184 0.889 1.3205%
Brandt Snedeker -0.202 176 0.944 1.2800%
Chad Campbell -0.209 176 0.935 1.2586%
Mathew Goggin -0.045 165 1.073 1.2032%
Kevin Streelman -0.194 204 0.935 1.1555%
Jason Bohn -0.169 136 0.954 1.1370%
Bryce Molder -0.228 176 0.901 1.1231%
Scott Piercy 0.024 182 1.103 1.0172%
Kevin Sutherland -0.273 187 0.846 1.0064%
Blake Adams -0.145 148 0.953 0.9887%
Aaron Baddeley -0.079 145 1.009 0.9814%
Matt Jones -0.052 159 1.029 0.9605%
Charles Howell III -0.290 199 0.823 0.9487%
Kevin Stadler -0.057 160 1.005 0.8512%
George McNeill -0.183 169 0.897 0.8359%
Briny Baird -0.157 186 0.918 0.8319%
Michael Allen -0.193 149 0.886 0.8190%
Jerry Kelly -0.154 187 0.917 0.8096%
Robert Garrigus -0.102 157 0.957 0.7955%
Nathan Green 0.088 205 1.110 0.7752%
Tim Petrovic -0.101 192 0.954 0.7706%
Stewart Cink -0.254 161 0.827 0.7680%
Boo Weekley -0.141 165 0.918 0.7571%
Charlie Wi -0.185 185 0.877 0.7295%
Tom Gillis -0.188 129 0.870 0.7020%
Tom Pernice Jr. -0.103 171 0.939 0.7002%
Derek Lamely 0.033 118 1.046 0.6856%
Woody Austin -0.181 185 0.871 0.6805%
Ricky Barnes -0.098 181 0.936 0.6669%
Scott McCarron -0.061 164 0.962 0.6506%
Jeff Maggert 0.119 169 1.103 0.6320%
Troy Matteson -0.033 177 0.981 0.6315%
Chris Couch -0.094 61 0.929 0.6169%
Rod Pampling -0.150 189 0.883 0.6125%
John Merrick -0.016 194 0.989 0.6075%
J.J. Henry -0.122 211 0.903 0.6037%
Chris Stroud 0.032 177 1.023 0.5878%
Brian Davis -0.122 209 0.900 0.5848%
Vaughn Taylor -0.057 182 0.950 0.5812%
Steve Elkington -0.088 144 0.921 0.5592%
Ryuji Imada -0.073 171 0.930 0.5479%
James Nitties 0.008 143 0.991 0.5396%
Mathias Gronberg 0.173 157 1.111 0.5018%
Garrett Willis 0.008 147 0.978 0.4865%
J.P. Hayes -0.008 116 0.963 0.4761%
Tim Herron -0.054 170 0.927 0.4744%
Brendon de Jonge -0.131 218 0.867 0.4706%
Greg Owen -0.062 179 0.917 0.4604%
Cameron Beckman -0.015 169 0.951 0.4521%
John Huston 0.086 90 1.028 0.4516%
Webb Simpson -0.108 178 0.880 0.4505%
Michael Letzig -0.033 173 0.937 0.4503%
Martin Laird -0.039 191 0.925 0.4245%
Alex Prugh -0.047 172 0.915 0.4096%
Corey Pavin -0.108 133 0.865 0.3979%
Shaun Micheel -0.028 105 0.925 0.3963%
Steve Flesch 0.016 172 0.957 0.3933%
Cameron Percy -0.004 156 0.941 0.3911%
Rocco Mediate 0.134 147 1.045 0.3910%
Nicholas Thompson 0.129 193 1.041 0.3882%
Billy Mayfair 0.099 177 1.018 0.3881%
Matt Bettencourt 0.113 203 1.023 0.3741%
Joe Ogilvie -0.051 180 0.899 0.3682%
Spencer Levin -0.155 209 0.821 0.3650%
Kris Blanks 0.054 176 0.974 0.3570%
Carl Pettersson -0.078 191 0.872 0.3449%
Daniel Chopra 0.165 185 1.051 0.3411%
Greg Chalmers -0.146 200 0.817 0.3264%
Lee Janzen -0.005 166 0.915 0.3113%
John Daly 0.291 109 1.129 0.3070%
Chris Riley -0.044 145 0.883 0.3033%
Charles Warren 0.043 132 0.945 0.2987%
Bill Lunde 0.037 177 0.940 0.2970%
Will MacKenzie 0.141 131 1.013 0.2903%
Joe Durant 0.067 138 0.942 0.2477%
Skip Kendall 0.179 172 1.017 0.2394%
Brett Quigley -0.031 184 0.861 0.2215%
Stuart Appleby -0.024 183 0.866 0.2212%
Matt Every 0.165 157 0.995 0.2144%
Garth Mulroy 0.130 177 0.970 0.2137%
Aron Price 0.109 173 0.954 0.2110%
Arjun Atwal 0.106 119 0.947 0.2023%
Jarrod Lyle 0.054 161 0.905 0.1899%
Roland Thatcher 0.276 86 1.052 0.1793%
Todd Hamilton 0.125 148 0.947 0.1772%
Matt Weibring 0.010 141 0.865 0.1713%
Steve Wheatcroft 0.127 153 0.944 0.1692%
Harrison Frazar 0.063 173 0.891 0.1522%
Michael Connell 0.026 47 0.864 0.1503%
Roger Tambellini 0.107 167 0.917 0.1479%
Parker McLachlin 0.388 139 1.105 0.1464%
Johnson Wagner 0.104 167 0.909 0.1378%
Graham Delaet 0.015 58 0.849 0.1371%
Richard S. Johnson 0.044 173 0.864 0.1306%
Steve Lowery 0.225 163 0.984 0.1302%
Ted Purdy 0.127 184 0.917 0.1270%
Cliff Kresge 0.216 134 0.974 0.1252%
Brian Stuard 0.205 169 0.965 0.1225%
Rich Barcelo 0.136 157 0.919 0.1215%
Jerod Turner 0.238 77 0.983 0.1187%
Chris DiMarco -0.021 178 0.810 0.1143%
Michael Bradley 0.136 120 0.904 0.1035%
Justin Bolli 0.147 151 0.908 0.1006%
James Driscoll 0.115 134 0.873 0.0839%
Henrik Bjornstad 0.064 173 0.835 0.0785%
Brenden Pappas 0.303 163 0.977 0.0707%
Omar Uresti 0.087 159 0.838 0.0670%
Jay Williamson 0.214 161 0.915 0.0655%
Troy Merritt 0.242 107 0.929 0.0626%
Andrew McLardy 0.190 140 0.887 0.0556%
Vance Veazey 0.194 156 0.883 0.0512%
Jeff Gove 0.184 156 0.876 0.0501%
Craig Bowden 0.200 159 0.880 0.0468%
Jeff Quinney 0.129 151 0.836 0.0460%
Luke List 0.263 74 0.914 0.0443%
Martin Flores 0.357 61 0.965 0.0412%
David Lutterus 0.575 86 1.093 0.0404%
Tom Gleeton #N/A #N/A 0.0358%
Nick Taylor 0.507 6 1.524 0.0358%
Cameron Tringale 0.133 35 0.818 0.0358%
Brett Wetterich 0.049 24 0.885 0.0358%
Kevin Johnson 0.349 144 0.943 0.0331%
Greg Kraft 0.455 118 0.951 0.0159%
Brent Delahoussaye 0.444 97 0.944 0.0159%
Brad Faxon 0.675 104 1.053 0.0122%
Billy Andrade 0.409 74 0.869 0.0063%
Chris Wilson 0.615 40 0.972 0.0059%
Notah Begay III 0.627 80 0.943 0.0032%

I didn’t put enough thought in to do anything this week for now, but if you have a question or want an opinion on a player, let me know in the comments.

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3 Comments

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3 responses to “RANKING THE TRAVELERS CHAMPIONSHIP FIELD

  1. Lou

    How much of an edge do you need when you make tourney winner selections and heads up selections?

  2. Varies. I don’t really have it set at a specific number because there are other factors I like to consider. If I can get an ROI of 20-30% and the other stuff lines up, then that’s usually good for me. I was tracking all the players with value for awhile and that had decent success over a run of like 20-25 tournaments, but that would also require betting on like 40 guys a week, which is tough.

  3. Didn’t see his price this week, but I think Goggin would have been 1 of the top-3 +EV picks in the field this week. It’s been like that for awhile, but he’s been pretty awful recently.

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