Uruguay pulled off an impressive run through group A, scoring the group win, allowing no goals and most importantly avoided Argentina. I’m not sure what they were prior to the open of this tournament, but when the lines first came out in December they were 129-1, and now are listed at 23-1 on Betfair.
Facing South Korea on June 26th, Uruguay will be about 66% to advance based on what I’ve seen so far.
That leaves a potential second round match-up which would be with the Group C champion v. Group D runner-up winner.
England is the favorite to win with a 47% chance at Betfair. That seems absurd, considering how poorly they have played so far. I’d say that’s mostly based on reputation as they need to outright win against a tough Slovenia squad and maintain a goal differential on the US. Slovenia will definitely advance on a draw, and the US needs a win.
As poorly as England has played and as overrated as they may be, I’d still think Uruguay would be better off avoiding them all together. The Oddsmakers and SPI have Slovenia as worse than the US so I’ll be rooting for this.
Slovenia 1, England 0
United States 1, Algeria 0
As long as Slovenia wins, It’s doesn’t matter really if England or the United States gets out because that’s on the other side of the bracket, but I’ll go with the US for patriotism and getting as many good teams out as possible.
This group got screwed up when Germany lost. That’s big because if Germany doesn’t win the group, Uruguay’s second round match-up could potentially be the winner of Germany-England. All European overratedness aside, that’s something I’d rather avoid.
Luckily, Germany only needs a win over Ghana to win the group, which is about 65% according to Ghana. That would give them at least a 4 goal advantage for Serbia to make up. Based on the odds, Serbia is the stronger team and Ghana is the weakest in the group. So that means,
Germany 1, Ghana 0
Australia 2, Serbia 0
would do the trick. That sets up Uruguay to play the winner of Ghana-Slovenia the 66% of the time they advance over South Korea.
Let’s go Slovenia, USA, Germany and Australia.