|Davis Love III||5||0.73%||13689|
6:30: In my opinion, there are some really good prices on Dustin Johnson based on what’s happened so far.
Tiger 44% to beat Mickelson.
|Davis Love III||9||0.88%||11246|
5:50: Crazy sequence of events. DJ Triples, Woods makes a crazy par, Phil 3-putts for par, Els makes birdie, GMAC pars 2.
5:30: Par on 1 was nice for DJ. Phil keeps making a charge and he’s likely lower sitting 10 feet away for birdie on 3.
5:00: Phil birdies the first. Doubles his chances to win, although they still aren’t that good. More importantly, he started the day with about a 29% chance at beating Tiger, now it’s 38%
Graeme McDowell to beat Dustin Johnson +106 @ Pinnacle [available generally]
Point One: look at the history of players who held the lead heading into the final round of the U.S. Open. In 2009, Ricky Barnes shot 76 (finished 2nd); in 2008, Tiger Woods shot 73 (won via a playoff); in 2007, Aaron Baddeley shot 80 (finished 13th); in 2006, Phil Mickelson shot 74 (finished 2nd) and Kenneth Ferrie shot 76 (finished 6th); in 2005, Retief Goosen shot 81 (finished 11th). Only once has the 3rd round leader gone on to win the U.S. Open in the last five years and that was Tiger Woods; the average score of the pre-round leader on Sunday has been almost 77. Point Two: Johnson is not a proven finisher. A lot has been made of the fact that he has won the last two AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Ams, but he only won in 2009 because the final round was washed out and earlier this year, he shot 74 in the final round, breaking par on just two par-fives all day, and was gifted the lead when the previous leader, Paul Goydos, took nine on the 14th. Johnson has never held the 3rd round lead in any other event. The remaining points are that in the final round of a Major he has never even started in the top-20 previously, that he said that he will continue to hit driver off the tee today despite the forecast for winds to rise throughout the day (to over 20 kmh), and that he will have Phil Mickelson and Tiger Woods in the two groups ahead of him. As a result, I will be very surprised if he matches Tiger in 2008 and shoots 73 today, whereas a score in the 80s like Baddeley and Goosen is a distinct possibility if he drops a shot early on. I’m not sure that McDowell will be the player to win this event from three back, but his score should be much more predictable whereas Johnson looks set to follow the trend of recent U.S. Open leaders and struggle today.
Absolutely no change at the top. That speaks to how far ahead the leaders are more than anything else.
2:00: Jim Herman has a -6 round going so far. I’d have to double check, but I’m pretty sure he’s the guy on the Nationwide Tour that had a ridiculous round earlier this season.
There is a 99% chance one of these guys wins:
Dustin has the conflicting never been in contention of a major with a great course history. Pebble might suit his game, but there really isn’t enough to say at this point. Overall, I’m pretty happy with where I have Dustin. Just based on the odds offered by the books it seems like there is some penalty for being in contention at a major for the first time(NOTE: This doesn’t mean it’s true). I’m not accounting for that at all if it is a factor. On the other hand, Dustin still has a lot of rounds from 2008 in my rankings that probably aren’t as meaningful given that it was his first year on tour and he has been consistently better since. I’d say 59% is on the low side of estimates for DJ and might even go as high as 61%.
I want to force every idiot saying that Tiger is back to read everything they wrote since the Masters. The point is, yesterday’s round shouldn’t change your opinion of Tiger alone. Personally, I’d say Tiger is slightly higher than the career minimum I’m using, but I would have said that before the tournament started. I’ll just stick with the pre-tournament ranking.
It should also be noted that A) People overrated Majors, B) People are killing Tiger for his play this year, and C) Tiger Woods HAS PLAYED ABOVE HIS CAREER AVERAGE IN 7 MAJOR ROUNDS THIS YEAR. Honestly, I know some people are stupid, but to this point, if you only watch majors, you cannot legitimately call Tiger’s season awful.
Anyway, Tiger is 16.2% to win with the career low estimate. If you think he’s slightly higher, If you adjust him up slightly higher it goes to 17.5%, and a career average puts him just under 19% to win. Like, I said for consistency, I’ll stick with what I was using pre-tournament, but just keep that in mind.
McDowell is stuck between a rock and hard place right now after playing pretty well yesterday. There is no shame in shooting EVEN par on this course, but Tiger and DJ really had phenomenal rounds. At this point, McDowell certainly has none of the upside that DJ has even though their rankings are close, and is being chased by the much better Tiger. It’s a tough break for McDowell that Johnson and Tiger played so well yesterday, because otherwise he would be looking really good to win. As it stands, I can’t see why 4.5-1 isn’t a pretty fair price.
Phil and Ernie
There might be a 65 out there today in good conditions(It’s probably safe to say they will not get any weather advantage over the leaders), but Phil and Ernie need to fire something low and get help. Ernie’s one shot advantage is enough to make up for the skill differential between him and Phil and put them both right around 30-1.