ROUND 3 LIVE ODDS/COMMENTARY

PLAYER H PERCENT ODDS
Dustin Johnson 18 58.58% -141
Graeme McDowell 18 17.83% 461
Tiger Woods 18 16.18% 518
Phil Mickelson 18 3.31% 2922
Ernie Els 18 3.21% 3011

11:15: Dustin Johnson just tied Tiger Woods for the low round of the day. Five shots is going to be a lot to make up even with Tiger’s more proven pedigree.

10:30: Because of what Tiger did and the guys that have fallen apart have disappeared from tv, the rounds by G-Mac and Dustin Johnson don’t seem that good.  However, they are great rounds.  If they can par in, they have the second and third best rounds of the day, respectively.  That’s pretty good in the final pairing of a major.

PLAYER H PERCENT ODDS
Graeme McDowell 21 39.84% 151
Dustin Johnson 21 28.66% 249
Tiger Woods 18 22.05% 353
Phil Mickelson 20 4.28% 2238
Ernie Els 21 3.58% 2691

9:30:  That was really a fantastic round by Tiger.  I mentioned Phil could get close to the best rounds of the year  in my rankings yesterday, Tiger’s round is almost certainly better.  My estimate is that it will fall behind McIlroy and Karlsson, but it’s pretty damn impressive.

PLAYER H PERCENT ODDS
Dustin Johnson 25 33.95% 195
Graeme McDowell 25 32.61% 207
Tiger Woods 18 24.33% 311
Ernie Els 26 3.42% 2828
Phil Mickelson 24 2.47% 3948

8:30:  Dustin Johnson has been the only leader to take advantage of the easy 1-7 stretch.  Expect players to start giving back shots once they get to 8.  Playing 8-12 in EVEN par is actually way above average.  Tiger has really played a great back nine. I don’t back off anything I’ve said about him.  He’s not 100%(see sloppy front nine bogeys), but he definitely has the ability to go low.   If he can birdie one of the final two holes and get to even, that will really look good in a few hours.

PLAYER H PERCENT ODDS
Dustin Johnson 29 33.83% 196
Graeme McDowell 29 22.58% 343
Tiger Woods 20 11.82% 746
Phil Mickelson 28 10.89% 819
Ernie Els 29 8.10% 1135
K.J. Choi 27 3.36% 2876
Ryo Ishikawa 29 2.07% 4723
Alex Cejka 29 1.88% 5214
Soren Kjeldsen 28 1.21% 8191
Ian Poulter 27 0.78% 12733
Paul Casey 28 0.71% 13896
Tim Clark 26 0.49% 20175
Charl Schwartzel 26 0.45% 22349
Martin Kaymer 26 0.34% 29541
Sean O’Hair 18 0.28% 35158
Gregory Havret 27 0.26% 38434
Lee Westwood 26 0.25% 39745

7:30: Wait, so you mean Phil isn’t God?

Absolutely thrilling start from Mickelson.  McDowell, obviously, is the favorite right now, but it’s not huge because while McDowell is a very strong player, he’s not that much better than the average player in this field and guys like Els, Woods, Mickelson(even Dustin Johnson to some extent) are much better and giving a good chase.

PLAYER H PERCENT ODDS
Graeme McDowell 34 36.62% 173
Ian Poulter 31 9.30% 975
Dustin Johnson 35 8.51% 1075
Phil Mickelson 33 8.30% 1106
Ernie Els 34 7.34% 1262
Tiger Woods 25 7.01% 1326
K.J. Choi 31 3.42% 2822
Ryo Ishikawa 34 3.07% 3159
Alex Cejka 33 2.24% 4370

6:30: minus-1 thru 7 is not going to cut it for Tiger. With 3 and 4 playing from the red tees, that’s probably above average, but Tiger needs to be a lot better than average at this point. I’m still showing between -1 and EVEN as the winning score, it will be interesting to see what happens to that as more players get out on what looks like an easier course today.

PLAYER H PERCENT ODDS
Phil Mickelson 36 20.12% 397
Graeme McDowell 36 15.51% 545
Ernie Els 36 9.96% 904
Dustin Johnson 36 7.86% 1172
Paul Casey 36 7.30% 1270
Tiger Woods 29 5.61% 1683
Henrik Stenson 24 5.11% 1858
Ryo Ishikawa 36 4.01% 2392
Ian Poulter 36 3.53% 2737
Alex Cejka 36 2.20% 4452
Jerry Kelly 36 2.19% 4458
Lee Westwood 35 2.01% 4883
K.J. Choi 36 1.86% 5265
Soren Kjeldsen 36 1.57% 6286
Brendon de Jonge 36 1.49% 6602

4:30: Again gut feeling, but this probably gives too big of an advantage to guys on the course because the USGA seems to not believe in setting up the course as hard as possible anymore. If the wind picks up, this is could be a huge advantage for the players that got out on an easier course early.

PLAYER H PERCENT ODDS
Phil Mickelson 36 20.40% 390
Graeme McDowell 36 15.78% 534
Ernie Els 36 10.14% 886
Dustin Johnson 36 8.01% 1148
Paul Casey 36 7.44% 1243
Ryo Ishikawa 36 4.09% 2343
Davis Love III 24 3.89% 2468
Ian Poulter 36 3.60% 2677
Tiger Woods 36 3.10% 3121
Jerry Kelly 36 2.25% 4348
Alex Cejka 36 2.25% 4353
Lee Westwood 36 2.00% 4907
K.J. Choi 36 1.91% 5126
Soren Kjeldsen 36 1.61% 6122
Henrik Stenson 32 1.57% 6280
Brendon de Jonge 36 1.53% 6419
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2 Comments

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2 responses to “ROUND 3 LIVE ODDS/COMMENTARY

  1. am19psu

    Probably a dumb question: does DJ’s prior performance at Pebble matter and, if it does, have you included it in your odds?

  2. Doubtful. I mean he’s only played 5 rounds in 3 prior appearances(multiple course tournament), two of which are 74 and 73. Pebble might be a course more suited to him, but I don’t think there is enough to say either way at this point. Even so, it’s likely only fractions of a shot benefit.

    I also think I have him a little low because he generally sucked in 2008(first year on tour, I believe), but has been much much better since. Given his age, I think that’s a fair adjustment. That being said, there is probably some adjustment downwards for first time with a major lead. Overall, I’m pretty happy with where I have DJ, if anything I’m low on him, and I still have him at around 59% to win.

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