I think you have to factor in(I did) Rickie’s last two rounds, because he has only 84 major tour rounds in the past two years and two rounds that are well below average against a strong field will definitely have a big impact. Still, that puts Fowler just around average for this exclusive field, and I think he might be a touch overrated. Tough to tell, though, and it should be fun to watch what the young guy comes up with.
Furyk has historically dominated this course, Is having one of the best years in the world so far and is sitting 4th only behind some less than proven players. I can’t figure out why this line is that high. It’s not terrible, but Furyk certainly has to be a legit threat to win.
If you count 2008 like I do, Justin Rose’s price looks pretty crazy. That being said, with what I have collected(I’m still missing most of 2005, and all of 2006,2007) it looks like 2008 could be an aberation for Rose and he is slightly more likely to win than what I have listed. I’m not sure it’s enough, though.
I’m not sure what to say about Stricker at this point. I don’t see any reason why he shouldn’t be in the Furyk-Mickelson group as debateable number 2, yet he clearly the perception has not caught up to the reality. 8 shots seems like a lot, but there aren’t enough guys ahead of him to make 40-1 anywhere close to reasonable. Phil is basically equal to Stricker. Phil is one shot ahead this week and less than 10-1.
I’ve been adjusting Phil up a little more which seems to be more fair to his career average. Do that, and despite a slower last two years, Phil is a little more reasonable. Still, I think he’s probably the most overrated golfer in the history of golf(more on this later) and it’s a bad price.
If you treat Tiger Woods at basically his lowest extended period of play from the years 2002-half of 2005, 2008-2010, I come up with around 36-1. Seems like a reasonable expectation for his play currently, but as he continues to play and practice, he will definitely show more upside.