I can’t quite say why, but I love Michael Sim this week. Despite returning from an extended layoff, Sim has played almost exactly to his 2-year average in his first two starts back. Other than that, I think he is generally underrated and if last week really does count for a little more than other tournaments, Sim has a sneaky good finish of t-23 last week. What that doesn’t mention is that Sim had an 8 on one hole with 2 balls lost in the water. Colonial figures to present less trouble in terms of water and it shouldn’t over power Sim, either.
Sometime last spring I would have told you, “I think Steve Stricker is underrated, but I’m not going to take a shot with a guy that at his age figures to have little upside.” Four wins and 11 top tens later, that statement clearly looks pretty silly. Obviously, he’s coming off and injury, but even Stricker at less than 100% is still easily one of the top-10 players in this field.
I feel like there is something, I’m missing with Phil Mickelson, because I just don’t see what everyone else does. On his career, Mickelson could be expected to win about once every ten events. That’s certainly good, but in it no means makes him hands down the second best player in the world right now, pushing on number one. Phil is certainly one of the three best players in the field, but I’m just not sure what clearly separates him from Furyk or Stricker.
Stricker v. Tim Clark
The books should just add 40 cents to any line they plan on releasing on a player that is making his return. These get bet up every time, and I can’t help but think that they knew what they were doing when they released the line.
Kenny Perry v. KJ Choi
Again, I’m hesitant to make a stand on Kenny Perry at his age, but when the only knock on him is that he isn’t as positive in the press as he has been the past few years, color me skeptical that K.J. Choi is actually better. Perry has a strong history at Colonial and is coming off two strong outings, both of which you would normally be paying for. Other than that, I think he’s been better than Choi over 2 years, even with wildly different 2010 results.
Geoff Ogilvy v. Choi
Take out the SBS Championship and Geoff Ogilvy has been downright mediocre this year. That scares me a little, because I’m usually worried Ogilvy has played over his head a little in the past year. I just can’t see how Choi isn’t overrated at this point, though, and that means
Furyk v. Mickelson
I just don’t see how other than general public perception you can treat these two players as anything less than equal. Other than Furyk’s MC at the Masters, Furyk has been better with more wins and just as many top tens as Mickelson.
Hunter Mahan v. Ben Crane
I think this is another classic case of overrating recent results. Mahan has rather anonymously posted some decent results(except last week) following a win earlier this year in Phoenix, while the perennially underrated Crane has finished in the top ten in his last two starts. Here’s the problem, there is nothing since 2008 that suggests this can continue in the long run.
Zach Johnson v. HurricaneSteve
I personally gaurantee Steve Marino will win this match-up, but you would be hard pressed to set Steve Marino in the same class as Zach Johnson, man crushes aside. Obviously Marino’s playoff loss last year is the reason he is favored here, but I’m not buying that event alone makes him a better player overall than Johnson.