LIVE MASTERS ODDS

I’m going to try and do Live odds every hour or so for the Masters on Thursday and Friday.

Here’s a few notes on how this will work:

-Based off my two year rankings.

-Based off standard deviations and hole averages from past two years. Made some slight adjustments to the standard deviations using a regression to adjust for the small sample size of people that have actually played 72 holes in the past two years.

-Adjusted Tiger’s rankings slightly. I knocked him down from +230 to win to +290 to win according to this. It may not be fair to have Tiger at full strength, but it’s also important to remember much of what I have from Tiger is injury influenced, so it may not be necessary to make a huge adjustment.

-Assumed Ryo Ishikawa and Yuta Ikeda had played enough golf that their recorded rounds are a good representation of their overall ability. In Ryo’s case, I think it’s fair because he is about 3 rounds short of the 40 minimum. In Yuta’s case, I think it’s fair because I have been following his odds on and off and my rankings are close to where the match-up lines have generally placed him.

-After that, I assumed all senior and amateur players without enough rounds revert back to the average for players without enough rounds.

-I adjusted everyone’s rankings for the strength of this field.  That should give us a more accurate winning score projection.

Things I’ll be tracking
-Adjusted Leaderboard. This can best be described as a players total strokes so far plus their projected average based on two year rankings and hole averages from the remaining holes. I think this will be the best metric out there to determine where people stand on the course.

-Updated Odds every hour or so.

-Tiger hole-by-hole odds.

-Tim Clark, Robert Allenby and Tiger Woods to win odds.

-Odds for my 72 hole match-ups.

-My projected 72 hole winning score.

If you’re interested in something else, leave it in the comments and I’ll see what I can do.

And so, here is my first Masters leaderboard:

PLAYER rm TO WIN ODDS AVG SC rk
Tiger Woods 72 25.83% 287 280.61 1
Jim Furyk 72 3.50% 2754 285.63 2
Steve Stricker 72 6.54% 1429 285.85 3
Phil Mickelson 72 3.43% 2813 286.52 4
Sergio Garcia 72 2.01% 4869 286.74 5
Lee Westwood 72 2.97% 3264 286.86 6
Paul Casey 72 2.33% 4200 287.16 7
Padraig Harrington 72 2.00% 4889 287.31 8
Robert Allenby 72 1.77% 5562 287.35 9
Camilo Villegas 72 1.76% 5571 287.35 10
Anthony Kim 72 2.73% 3561 287.53 11
Ernie Els 72 1.71% 5736 287.81 12
Hunter Mahan 72 1.88% 5221 287.82 13
Zach Johnson 72 1.63% 6029 287.83 14
Retief Goosen 72 1.86% 5290 287.90 15
Robert Karlsson 72 1.12% 8822 288.14 16
Ian Poulter 72 1.33% 7421 288.16 17
Martin Kaymer 72 0.91% 10884 288.21 18
Geoff Ogilvy 72 1.82% 5403 288.30 19
Luke Donald 72 0.93% 10703 288.33 20
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1 Comment

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One response to “LIVE MASTERS ODDS

  1. cajuncook

    neat, looking forward to this.

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