I’m going to try and do Live odds every hour or so for the Masters on Thursday and Friday.
Here’s a few notes on how this will work:
-Based off my two year rankings.
-Based off standard deviations and hole averages from past two years. Made some slight adjustments to the standard deviations using a regression to adjust for the small sample size of people that have actually played 72 holes in the past two years.
-Adjusted Tiger’s rankings slightly. I knocked him down from +230 to win to +290 to win according to this. It may not be fair to have Tiger at full strength, but it’s also important to remember much of what I have from Tiger is injury influenced, so it may not be necessary to make a huge adjustment.
-Assumed Ryo Ishikawa and Yuta Ikeda had played enough golf that their recorded rounds are a good representation of their overall ability. In Ryo’s case, I think it’s fair because he is about 3 rounds short of the 40 minimum. In Yuta’s case, I think it’s fair because I have been following his odds on and off and my rankings are close to where the match-up lines have generally placed him.
-After that, I assumed all senior and amateur players without enough rounds revert back to the average for players without enough rounds.
-I adjusted everyone’s rankings for the strength of this field. That should give us a more accurate winning score projection.
Things I’ll be tracking
-Adjusted Leaderboard. This can best be described as a players total strokes so far plus their projected average based on two year rankings and hole averages from the remaining holes. I think this will be the best metric out there to determine where people stand on the course.
-Updated Odds every hour or so.
-Tiger hole-by-hole odds.
-Tim Clark, Robert Allenby and Tiger Woods to win odds.
-Odds for my 72 hole match-ups.
-My projected 72 hole winning score.
If you’re interested in something else, leave it in the comments and I’ll see what I can do.
And so, here is my first Masters leaderboard:
|PLAYER||rm||TO WIN||ODDS||AVG SC||rk|