But, first I found this pretty hilarious even for Jason Sobel’s standards.

While most observers believe it will be mindset and focus that could derail Woods in his bid for a fifth career green jacket, expect something more tangible to act as the biggest factor.

Since winning his last Masters title in 2005, Tiger has struggled with the flatstick here, though he’s remained in the top six during each of the last four editions of the tournament. Don’t be surprised if he finds a similar fate this time around, too

How four golf tournaments played in varying conditions is more tangible than mental factor is beyond me. Also, if you’re going to say Tiger struggles at Augusta in recent years. You should probably note that he is one of only 12 players to make the cut since 2006. Among those who have, the leaderboard looks like this:

1155-Angel Cabrera
1157-Vijay Singh
1159-Padraig Harrington, Stuart Appleby
1161-Jim Furyk
1164-Stephen Ames
1167-Geoff Ogilvy
1169-Mike Weir
1172-Miguel Angel Jimenez
1184-Trevor Immelman

I’d definitely say Tiger sucks on this course.

At approximately 12:42: TTTMLJST Tiger Woods will take his first shot at Augusta. Not long after that, he will record the first number on his scorecard. Many books have odds of what that number will be, here is my guess:

I did this based on my two year rankings of Tiger and the standard deviation and averages from the past two years at Augusta. Using normal distribution on something like projecting scores for one hole could be problematic, but I think it’s fair to estimate based on how close my match play sims have been using the same estimates.

Here’s the breakdown:

2- 0.19%

That set’s my odds at
Birdie or better: +577
Par: -178
Bogey or worse: +372

That pretty much splits the Greek’s numbers right down the middle with a slight bias towards Tiger making bogey. Obviously, this is influenced by things like his traditional starts(Torrey Pines!) and the pressure and rust he will be facing. Even more promising, is how close my numbers are to Pinnacle. Looks like the books(and me) did a pretty solid job estimating Tiger’s first hole.


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