I really haven’t had time to look into the futures or props or anything like that this week, but I did look at the match-ups. I think there are some huge misses out there.
Okay, Tiger hasn’t played golf in awhile. He’s not hurt, though. The pressure and attention he is getting are good reasons to not like him, but they seem more made up and rationalized than actually meaningful to me.
Look, Tiger will play how he plays this week, and I’ll either be called and idiot or genius based on the wholly meaningless events of 4 rounds of golf on a pretty course. The fact is, If you gave me these lines on Tiger against Ernie Els or Phil Mickelson I would take it all season for max plays. You’re never going to see a better line for Tiger in these match-ups.
Sergio Garcia v. K.J. Choi
I have the fair line on this one at -180 to Sergio, which excludes last week’s tournaments because I haven’t had a chance to update my rankings. That’s as far off as I can remember seeing a non injury based line with two guys that I have 184 and 158 rounds, respectively.
Kenny Perry/Tim Clark v. Fred Couples
It’s no surprise that Fred Couples is overrated after the epic gang bang the golf media gave him after his 3 straight senior tour wins. Last week at Houston, may have slowed some of the momentum down, but I still think putting him up against guys who have consistently proven for two years to be world class players is a mistake. Couples is good based on the 65 rounds I have, but he’s basically just an average player in this strong field. Clark and Perry are well above average and should be favored over Couples, regardless of 12 senior tour rounds.
I’m sure there are other match-ups that I’ll be on, or other people like that I can talk about later, but these jumped out as soon as I saw them as absolute must play for above standard plays. On a regular tournament, I’ll use my knowledge of players/circumstances to pick out the lines that jump out to me. Then I cross check with my rankings. Usually I’m looking for about a 4-5% edge on the line before I make a play. There are about 2 or 3 of those per week. This week, I look at all four of these and they are way off. It’s always worth thinking twice in that case, but I can’t see any reason these lines are affected by something that is actually worth anything.