These odds are probably best described as estimates.  I based this off the hole-by-hole stats I’ve been recording for some live Masters odds.  Hole averages come from this week, I used the standard deviations based on what I had for the Masters.  I can’t really verify the accuracy, but they did appear pretty close to what WSEX was offering earlier in the day.

Na is not very likely to win, although he is about 17 times more likely then when Els was at -14.

PLAYER rem % to win ODDS AVG SC
Ernie Els 4 75.3% -305 277.1
Kevin Na 4 17.7% 464 279.2
Retief Goosen 1 0.0% 237036 280.2
Ben Curtis 4 3.4% 2810 280.2
Chris Couch 5 3.0% 3254 280.5
Kevin Streelman 3 0.4% 23039 281.0
Edoardo Molinari 4 0.1% 169895 281.4

rem:  Holes Remaining
avg sc: =Players number of strokes + average score for remaining holes.  Calculated on  2-year rankings and hole averages.

To be fair to Els, we probably need to adjust Na’s score because he faces an 81-foot putt right away.  I’m estimating that makes his score about 4.5(I have a lot of experience with Na putting)for the 15th hole.

PLAYER rem % to win ODDS AVG SC
Ernie Els 4 79.0% -377 277.1
Kevin Na 3 11.8% 745 279.4
Retief Goosen 1 0.1% 106440 280.2
Ben Curtis 4 4.5% 2128 280.2
Chris Couch 5 3.8% 2507 280.5
Kevin Streelman 3 0.6% 15835 281.0
Edoardo Molinari 4 0.1% 103569 281.4

Na probably won’t win tomorrow, but it’s sure been one hell of tease.  Els was around 93% to win when he was at -14.  Na was almost dead at that point.  A few lucky breaks and he’s right back in this. Will he win?

Na ga happen.


1 Comment

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One response to “NA GA HAPPEN

  1. Solid 60x swing between Na winning and Na losing.

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