ARNOLD PALMER INVITATIONAL

Movers and Shakers
I thought I’d add this part in to my weekly breakdowns, time permitting. Since recent performance seems to be such a big issue in determining odds I wanted to look at some people that rose and fell in my rankings.

Jim Furyk, K.J. Choi: Furyk obviously won, but jumped a whole lot because he was so far out in front of the field. I know it got close in the end, but through no fault of Furyk’s after a hot K.J. Choi chased him down a bit. Those two were so far out in front of the field that they both got a lot of credit for their good play. Furyk moved to basically equal to Stricker over two years and Choi jumped up 12 spots to 52 in my rankings. What does that mean? Well Furyk dropped from around 18-1 to 16-1. Choi now is about 130-1 to win this week, when he would have been 185-1 last week.

Rhys Davies:
Davies dropped about 83 spots or roughly .3 of a shot per round. To be fair, most of this is because he went from 62 rounds to 66 rounds so his score is certainly more variable than some of the top players with more rounds but that is still a pretty significant drop. By my numbers, Davies would have been about 177-1 to win this tournament this week before winning the Hassan Trophee, but should now be around 77-1.

Jeev Milkha Singh: Singh missed the cut with rounds of 74-71 at the Transitions Championship. He fell 13 spots to 66 in my rankings. I only bring this up because my rankings have been very optimistic on Jeev, and it’s possible that is unwarranted.

Arnold Palmer Top-10 with Odds:

At this point, I’ve basically agreed to disagree with the rest of the world about the second best golfer. I have two years of objective numbers that say Furyk and Stricker are better than Mickelson against the general consensus that Mickelson is Tiger’s closest rival. I tried to be patient with this, but I’m running out of viable reasons why Phil should be considered number two, much less a clear-cut number two.

I really have no idea how to break down some of the options here. I thought about Stricker, Marino, Na, Baird, Sutherland, Goydos, Clark, Gillis, Zach Johnson, Mallinger and Curtis(as well as Noren in Europe). I wasn’t more than lukewarm on any of them, so I’ll wait and see what happens after one round of play.

Match-ups are posted here.

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