Tiger to win the Masters +400/-600

There are obviously a ton of unknowns here, but this is a really good price considering you are getting the world’s best golfer who has won on this course four times. I don’t doubt that the media circus that will be this year’s Masters will have some effect on him. I don’t doubt that he probably won’t be in mid-season form his first time out. I do doubt how much of an effect that really has.

Adjusting Tiger in my rankings from his true 2-year rankings(-1.20), to get the fair price(+500, with no juice at the Greek) bumps him down to around -1. That makes him about .6 strokes worse per round than his 2-year average. Seems a bit high to me, but with Tiger not returning to the course before the Masters I doubt there is any rush to take this.

Tiger Major Count
Zero: +115(G)
One: +205(G)
Two: +625(G)
Three: +1600(5d)
Grand Slam: +3200(5d)/-4250(G)
Best Price available between the 5dimes/Greek.

Let’s just assume Tiger is 25%(3-1) to win each major regardless of venue. That puts some decent value on Tiger winning 1(+137) or 2(+374) majors using a binomial distribution. I wasn’t quite sure earlier, but I have no doubt now that 5dimes was offering some ridiculous prices considering Tiger had to tee it up at Masters for action.

As it stands now, I’m not sure those odds are crazy enough to be worth taking from now until the end of August. The other obvious issue is if Tiger shows any signs of life, by June he is going to be incredibly overpriced at St. Andrews and Pebble Beach. I think it’s safe to say the Vegas odds will give him a better than 25% chance of winning those tournaments.

I’m going to set his fair price at somewhere between 28-30% to win each major, which leaves about a 25% chance that Tiger wins two majors this year. That gives a pretty decent edge on Tiger winning exactly two majors, though I have yet to decide if that is truly worth my sanity for 5 months.

Tiger Woods to Make the Cut -800(Bodog)
The Masters has a weird 10 shots rule, which means the number of people who make the cut varies(regular tour is top-70 and ties every week). The past two years, 45 and 49 players have made the cut. Based on my rankings, I think that seems like a reasonable number considering the weather and other factors aren’t as crazy as the year Immelman won.

Tiger has around a 95% chance of finishing in the top-46 slots. That seems pretty reasonable and appears to have value on Tiger making the cut, though this prop should be pretty widely offered Masters week and I doubt Bodog ends up with the best price.

Tiger’s lowest scoring round(Bodog)

First -7/2
3rd 2/1
Final 2/1

I would lean to the first round here, since, contrary to public opinion and Sunday Steve Marino, I haven’t seen any proof that a golfer is any different on a different day of the week on average. Also, it seems that Tiger will really struggle in his first round is the public sentiment, which seems to be underrating the first round. Still, that’s a lot of juice.

Tiger First Round Score(Bodog)
Over 70- +110
Under 70- -140

Again, if there wasn’t this whole debut, after massive tabloid scandal under 70 is the way to go. Based on the last two years, I have Tiger at 58% to shoot under 70 in round 1. I might be backing Tiger in the first round a lot, but this seems like a prop that will be widely available and found at a better price Masters week.

Tiger finishing position(Bodog)
1-3: 2-1
4-6: 2-1
7-10: 3-1
11+: 9-4

It appears ties count in this, so a t-3 would be 3. That makes two ways to do it by my numbers, one is to just use the standardized ranking to calculate the top-3, the other is to convert the rankings to scores and do it with ties worked in.

This is what I got(scores):
1-3: 51.6%
4-6: 16.3%
7-10: 7.1%
11+: 24.7%

1-3: 54.9%
4-6: 15.6%
7-10: 10.7%
11+: 18.5%

Once again, it appears the value lie on Tiger playing well. I have a feeling if Tiger is being offered at 2-1 to get in the top 3 and ties come Masters week that is something I might be interested in.


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