Maybe 7-0, +11.87 is unfairly clouding my judgement here, but I’d have to say the fading Y.E. Yang easy money(for lack of a better word) train is over.
I’ve certainly been a little lucky fading Yang(as well as backing him at Hazeltine), but there is no doubt he has been ridiculously overrated(as well as underrated at the PGA) since winning a major. I could be wrong, but I doubt that many people view him as more than a random major champion along the lines of the illustrious Beem and Micheel at this point. Y.E. Yang winning the PGA makes me root for some random winner of every major, but I doubt it will be bombs away against Y.E. from this point forward.
Philling the void
I’m giving myself bonus points for that title, but I think Phil Mickelson is comically overrated at this point. Obviously, he was going to be pretty overvalued as a defending champ, but its got to the point where I honestly don’t know what people are thinking. It’s safe to say he is the consensus number 2 in public opinion, but Stricker and Furyk have been noticeably* better over the past two years and it doesn’t show any signs of slowing up.
*It’s actually a pretty small gap in my rankings, but Furyk and Stricker are each over -.6 standard deviations better than the PGA average, which makes somewhat of a gap between the rest of the world.
I’m going to try and start getting on these again. For now a breakdown of some of the contenders with a March Madness tie-in.
CBB Comparison: Kentucky
Certainly good, but nowhere near where is reputation is at this point. Phil is the second most likely player to win this week, but 8-1 is garbage.
CBB Comparison: Duke
Hard to say there is as much animosity towards Stricker as there is towards Duke right now, but people don’t fully give Stricker credit for being as good as he has been over the past few years and they easily forget his memorable performances. I read somewhere Stricker was off his game recently, which is funny considering he lost one fluky round at the matchplay and won his last stroke play event. Like Duke, Stricker has failed to turn his good ratings into results when people pay attention, but round for round he is better than anyone not named Tiger.
CBB Comparison: Purdue
Perry has some really strong numbers, which price him at better than 100-1, but I can’t help but get the feeling at his age he can’t quite be expected to be the same player that built those rankings, like Purdue sans Hummel.
CBB Comparison: Pittsburgh
This might seem a strange comparison for me if you go back and look at some of the stuff I have written about Villegas in the past, but a few good weeks in a row does not mean he should be among the top-line favorites in the field. 60-1 was a good price for Villegas, and he’s played well of late, improving his chances of winning slightly, but not to the level of 16-1.
CBB Comparison: Utah State
Most people have probably never heard of Steve, except for some pundit who notices his record and passingly mentions how solid of a player he is. Probably a good option, but still has no chance to win.
CBB Comparison: Fordham
CBB Comparison: Wisconsin
Furyk doesn’t have any circumstances similar to missing Leuer for several games, but he is as good as Wisconsin(via KenPom, at least) and I have a feeling his style of play and quirky swing are a factor in why he is somewhat overlooked by the odds makers.
CBB Comparison: Gonzaga
You’ve heard the name before, the course seems to fit, but he just isn’t as good as a few random weeks on the PGA Tour where he has played really well.