After his round Stewart Cink made one of the smartest comments a pro golfer will ever make when interviewed on the Golf Channel. He said something to the extent of there is almost no difference between 1-64 in this* field and 18 holes of golf is not a true determination of who is really a better golfer, just who is better on that day. True, true and true.
I mention this because the “underdogs” have been killing it this week. Well Clark over Kaymer and Villegas over Ogilvy were basically toss-ups and McIlroy over the last two years is much closer to Na and Wilson than Woods. I’m not saying there isn’t a difference between some of these players, it just isn’t that big and 18 holes isn’t enough to really determine it.
I’ve made 19 bets this week, 12 of which have come at +150 or better. Based on my numbers, only 7 of the 48 matches so far have a player who is +150 or worse. The biggest being Ross McGowan at +209. There is pretty clearly a huge disconnect between how good favorites are in this tournament.
*Sans Tiger. There is quite a difference between Tiger and the rest of the field.
20,000+ simulations(thanks XLSSports.)
Thongchai Jaidee v. Ryo Ishikawa:
From what I’ve seen so far, the Golf Channel has crowned Ishikawa as the greatest player ever(what happened to Rory) in 5 years. That’s fine, but I’ll take Jaidee, his funny name, and a plus number.
Jeev Milkha Singh v. Ian Poulter:
This is a classic case of higher seed being ridiculously overrated. Poulter is better for sure and maybe better than my rankings indicate, but I seriously doubt -170 better.
Sergio Garcia v. Tim Clark:
Looks pretty fair, Sergio is a definite loser at this point, though.
Luke Donald v. Oliver Wilson:
Same thing here. I’ll have a strong rooting interest in Oliver Wilson who should provide and easier test on the 1% chance Sergio makes it through Tim Clark tomorrow.
Nick Watney v. Retief Goosen:
Have this one as pretty close to a toss-up and with two big names it’s not surprising Vegas agrees.
Camilo Villegas v. Ben Crane:
At no point in the last 4 months has Camilo Villegas been overrated. I think -175 drastically overstates how much better than Crane he is though. Villegas is probably a top-15 player, but Crane is no slouch.
Charl Schwartzel v. Stewart Cink:
Stewie has a strong history here, but Charl’s 2010 European campaign is probably strong enough recent form to take all the value out of this match-up.
Brian Gay v. Paul Casey:
This line is flat insane. Brian Gay is not some obscure Asian with 4 names and 2 appearances in PGA Tour events. This guy won twice last year, by a lot. I won’t argue Casey is better, but +170 is crazy. There is absolutely NO way this line would be that high if this was a Sunday pairing in some random PGA event.