ACCENTURE MATCH PLAY ROUND 2 THOUGHTS

ODDS:

-forgot to change the column headers. First round, should obviously be second round.

BRACKET THOUGHTS:
-Same general idea as yesterday. Looks to be a lot of value on the underdogs in some of these match-ups as there just isn’t a huge difference in skill between this class of pro golfers.

-Luke Donald v. Robert Allenby is a brutal round 2 match-up.

-I got a bit lucky as Tom Gillis made an eagle from the fairway last week then finished in the top-10 by one shot. I gave that back today as Y.E. and Watney both holed out approaches.

-Camilo, Clark, Oliver Wilson, Nick Watney, Ben Crane and Mike Weir is my leans list. Not surprisingly, I think Furyk and Sergio are the best looks as favorites, though I probably won’t pull the trigger on those.

WINNER:
3 guys stood out to me as good looks to win.

-Jim Furyk
-Sergio Garcia
-Zach Johnson

Furyk is easily the best player left in the field over the past two years after Stricker’s departure. Schwartzel is an easier second round opponent than Mahan. That’s not a huge difference, but I think he is much more likely to win than the drop in odds from 35-1 to 28-1 would indicate.

Same story with Zach Johnson. He went from 50-1 pre-tournament to 44-1 after round 1. I’m not sure his path got any easier with what happened in the opening round, but Johnson should be higher than this. Also, Zach Johnson has been better than Rory McIlroy and Martin Kaymer over just the past year, so if you’re putting any weight into that as a reason why they are so ridiculously priced than I think you have to apply the same to Johnson.

Sergio is guaranteed to suck me in at some point in any tournament. Realistically he has no shot at winning and we all know he will choke. Theoretically, he is a better player than the very overrated Kaymer and McIlroy and his biggest challenge will come from Big Shot Bob as they trade 7, 8s ad 9s down the back nine of their elite 8 match-up.

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