FIRST LOOK: WGC MATCH PLAY

So, the rankings are finalized and the field is basically set. Tiger looks doubtful to show up, Phil is skipping it to pretend he likes his family, but the rest of the field would be crazy not to show up since it’s basically a free $40,000 round of golf at worst.

Here is a first look at a quick simulation I did using my 2-yr rankings. Slightly under 20,000 simulations using a spreadsheet provided last year by XLSsports.(Thanks again)

Notes:
-Obviously assumes Tiger is not playing.

-Ryo Ishikawa only has 28 rounds on major tours. I just used his ranking after those 28 rounds, assuming that was an accurate reflection of his skill which is probably not true.

-Yuta Ikeda has 6 rounds. I set him as the average PGA Tour player. No idea if that is true or not.

Thoughts on the Brackets:
STRICKER
-Ishikawa v. Sim is a pretty awesome first round match-up in a won’t make it on the golf channel kind of way.

-I wish I could switch Kuchar(#40 v. Kim) with Scott(#41 v. Cabrera).

-The Asians(Jaidee, Jeev) will probably be pretty decent first round looks.

-Best value(straight by the numbers) to win this group will probably be Karlsson, though, I am most likely to bet on Kim to win this group. Overall, this looks like a big stay away since Stricker will probably not get full credit for how good he has really been.

KAYMER
-It’s ridiculous that you take out two top players and all of a sudden young Martin has a group named after him.

-There is almost no way I’m not losing money three times in this group on Rory McIlroy. Kevin Na is an obvious round 1 play, then he could face MAJ, and the possibility of Allenby/McDowell/Hanson and Donald. Out of those four, I doubt there is one that isn’t a solid play against Rory in the round of 16.

-Sergio, Big Shot Bob and Luke Donald should all have good prices to win this group. Considering first round opponents, though, Na and Tim Clark could be good looks as long shots. With Rory and Kaymer in this one I would have to say this looks like the best shot at Value on paper, although I’m not sure PGA Tour bettors will be as high on those two as Euros seem to be.

-G-Mac v. Luke Donald is my favorite won’t make it onto TV match of round 1 in this group.

-The Hanso(e)n Brothers look like the best round 1 plays, outside of Na.

WESTWOOD
-Ikeda has W.C. Liang(I think) v. AK last year in the first round written all over it. Should get a nice dog price on Ikeda that is well worth it, though I have no idea what Ikeda looks like. YUTA!

-England will be all over the Westwood-Wood match-up.

-I can’t wait until Soren Kjeldsen is -110/100 against Y.E. in 5dimes reduced section next week.

-No way Alex Noren at +150ish should be a personal max(like Hurricane Steve v. Ryo last week) but its pretty much an ideal situation for value on Noren going against the defending champ.

-Camilo should be a good look for a favorite against the hot Dustin Johnson. Of course he will flame out within the first 4 holes.

-I’m saying Alex the Great will be good value in this group, only because he won’t have to look at “T-1 A. Noren -6” on the leaderboard at any point during the week.

-It’s hard to envision me not on at least Noren, Villegas or YUTA! to win this group. I have Els, Goosen, Ogilvy, YE, Moore, Dustin Johnson, and Watney all penciled in as overrated. Westwood should have a pretty fair price.

FURYK
-This bracket sucks.

-Furyk should be fairly priced, there may be some value on Mahan, but looking at the rest of the bracket…meh.

-Mahan v. Furyk is a brutal second round match-up.

-I could go through this whole bracket without wagering on any of the match-ups.

All in all, I can’t wait for this tournament.

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1 Comment

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One response to “FIRST LOOK: WGC MATCH PLAY

  1. Ah, your enthusiasm has infected me and I also look forward to this weekend’s tournament. I appreciate the mentions as always, and you’ve thanked me quite enough while I haven’t returned the favor for your consistent content.

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