I think when you look at out-rights the best way to do it is to view it in terms of everything you play. That’s kind of hard to do, but it’s much easier to look at both of these tournaments side by side. Here is the list I made earlier in the week with both tournaments grouped together.

Probably real value

-Sergio Garcia(Qatar)
-Camilo Villegas(Qatar)

Both of these guys are pretty good looks based on their level of play from the past two years and there is probable upside in taking them. Garcia should soon be entering the prime of his career(expect lots of runners up in majors) and Villegas should definitely be improving from this point forward. Add in that both of these guys had down years last year and I think they were definitely good prices*

*I could be making this up after both shot -2 today, but they were my only picks for the week.

Generous price, not messing around

-Kenny Perry(Qatar)
-Robert Karlsson(Qatar)
-Miguel Angel Jimenez(Qatar)

All of these guys were priced way too high based on their last 2 years of play. However, what is the upside to taking them? It’s doubtful there next 2 years will be as good as their last 2 and that’s the point.

Small value
-Hunter Mahan(FI)
-Matt Goggin(FI)
-Steve Marino(FI)
-Luke Donad(FI)

I like all these guys in their own right, and most of them have upside, but they just aren’t as undervalued as Sergio or Camilo. If I made bigger plays on those two, maybe I could justify a smaller play on one of these guys, but there is no way they are equal.

Tom Gillis
Gillis has to be the most obscure ugly pick on the PGA Tour as he was basically the Robert Allenby of the NW tour last season. Still, he is raising some eyebrows as he drifted from 600-1 in his debut to 270-1 this week. If he wins, damn, you heard it here first.

Keep in mind
The North course is much(I think over 3 strokes last year) easier than the South course. That means a 68 could be better than a 66. Keep and eye out for one of the aforementioned golfers if they get off to a hot start on the South course.


1 Comment

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