ABU DHABI CHAMPIONSHIP

Total brain fart thinking today was Tuesday and missing out on the Bob Hope Classic. Oh well, that’s a pretty garbage tournament compared to the first leg of the European desert series.

The Options:
It seems that people have already assumed that Rory McIlroy is one of the 5 best players in the world based on this line. Kaymer as the defending champion is also probably higher than he should be. I think that leaves some pretty good options elsewhere.

Alex Noren: Sadly, we can cancel out Alex pretty quickly. He is my favorite with a lot of upside, but 45-1 against this field(when someone like Villegas is 40-1) is pretty crazy. I’ll be on the sideline with Alex, but rooting for him hard over the weekend(Masters!) when both of my outrights are on the plane back home.

Lee Westwood: Not sure what the deal with Westwood is. Not counting last week, which shouldn’t affect it too much, I have Westwood as slightly behind Sergio for the best player in the field. He also won won in Dubai by like 15 strokes his last time out. I think there are better options, but if I had to pick a favorite I’d go with Westwood.

Sergio Garcia: I know there are questions surrounding a hand injury, but Garcia should probably be in the 12-1 group. Garcia had a down year by his lofty 2008 standards last year and always seems to struggle to close the deal, which might explain some of the overlay. On the other hand, I’ll wait until I seem some signs of life coming off the injury before I take something that is pretty unlikely to happen. I have a feeling if you like Garcia, you will still be able to get good prices later on in the year, at least until he wins.

Camilo Villegas: Camilo is crazy. Every time I watch him play especially in the past few months he seems to be all over the place. Still, over two years this price is way too generous so I’m getting sucked in again.

Anthony Kim: Anthony seems to have disappeared for awhile and my guess is with the Tiger “scandal” resident party boys AK and PP really feel the need to step up their off the course game this year. Hopefully Kim has been doing more practicing than binge drinking during the break as overall, 34-1 against this field is preposterous.

If you like to see what I arbitrarily came up with: Click here.

Match-ups:
Sergio +100 v. Ian Poulter(1)
Like I said, I hate messing around with this injury stuff, but everyone seems to be on Poulter, and Sergio would not have to be in full form to beat Poulter more than 50% of the time.

Last year:
Finally, for entertainment here’s what I had last year for this.

Alexander Noren-First he is a swede.* Very consistent results on Tour last year, but has yet to produce the all important win. To be honest, I somewhat regret this pick, because he is coming off 2 top-5 finishes in his last three events, but I think Noren is the best bet out there this week.

NOREN +5250(.18)
NOREN Top-5 +845(.51)

Interestingly enough, Noren is not much worse off than last year, though 45-1 seems pretty nuts. I doubt this was really a great price for Noren, though he definitely had(and still has upside).

Hopefully the posting schedule will be back to normal after today.

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