NOT SO TRIUMPHANT RETURN

Sorry, I’ve been out of town and busy for the last week and half so blog posts kind of slipped.

For the record, if I had put any time into the SBS Championship, I’m pretty sure Pat Perez would have been my pick. Pat looked to have a few decent rounds to close, but I doubt he would have won me anything.

Early season form

I heard yesterday, that foreign born players have won the SBS/Mercedes Championship for the last eight years. That’s not all together surprising to me as the international schedule is much more challenging after November than the US Schedule.

It also raises the question, how do you evaluate players coming into a new season who haven’t played in three months. First, there is probably no way to do this scientifically, but here are a few guidelines I use.

I should also mention, I look at a golfers skill as part natural ability part time spent practicing. So, there is obviously a huge gap between some players when given two months with no tournaments. I think its pretty safe to say that a guy who spent 10 hours a day practicing should expect to improve, while a guy who took the time off(or in marriage counseling) probably didn’t get too much better.

International players or players who made the rounds in Europe, China, Australia and Australia are probably in better form on average. It’s not that hard to imagine guys that stay out on tour, stay at the top of their games better in the “off-season.”

Look for guys that legitimately put in a lot of hard work in the offseason as opposed to took the time off. This is hard to do.

Don’t use any of that garbage I just mentioned to actually evaluate a player. While I definitely think that has an effect, it is nearly impossible to quantify in a way that has any meaning or value. I think the best thing to do is just stay patient for the first month or two, see who has made the most improvements and wait to be more aggressive until the middle to end of the season when players skill seems to change little from week to week.

Last Year
Took Mark Wilson, and I can see why given the reputation of the course this week. Unfortunately, I gave no explanation, so I’m not sure. Wilson was 80-1 llast year(I think he should probably still be lower, but I haven’t updated the rankings yet), and won a few months later in Mexico, so I probably was on the right track with this one.

This Week
Like I said, Haven’t updated the rankings so that has to happen before I make any decision, but, wow, let’s just say there are A LOT of options that stick out right away. Donald, Allenby, Trahan, Clark, Na and Curtis all look like really good options, though that could be because I haven’t seen those names on the PGA Tour in two full months.

P.S.
Florida looks pretty good tonight.

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