It’s not too late(I don’t think), you can still join the “Contrarianville” Bowl Mania challenge if you are so inclined. The group is public so just go to the Bowl Mania section and search “Contrarianville.”
I was going to outline my strategy for picking Bowl Mania, but honestly I never got around to it. The Bowl games today are boring, though I am seriously missing college football right now.
Basically, I think there are three factors to consider:
-Likelyhood of Team winning
-Popularity of Team by %
Obviously the likelyhood of a team winning is pretty easy to calculate. Just go to any sportsbook and pull down their numbers and you’ll get a pretty good estimate of a team’s chances of winning.
The popularity of that team and confidence are easy to figure out, as well as ESPN publishes them when you go to make your picks.
Taking that into account, teams like Nevada and Fresno State aren’t very high on my confidence lists, because they are A) uber-popular and B) people are quite confident in them. I chose to go with bigger favorites, who were less popular and people had allotted less confidence to. For that reason, the OU’s and TCU’s of this bowl season are better bowl mania picks because they are almost as likely to win and you will gain more points on the ESPN field.
Keeping these factors in mind, I banged out a quick Bowl Mania spreadsheet found here:
2010 Bowl Mania
On the first sheet there is a breakdown of all the bowls. The second one tells you the net points in relation to the espn field of all the teams at every confidence level. Obviously, there is some balance of maxing out your points and gaining the most on the field, that I did not care to find. If someone out there would like to, go for it.
Richmond +6 -103(1)
Old Dominion +9 -105(1)
European Tour Rd. 4:
Soren +110 v. Anders(.5)
Bourdy +110 v. E Molinari(.5)