Maryland 86(+2), Villanova 95
Watching Maryland on T.V. it seemed like they couldn’t get a stop to save their lives against hyper-tough Villanova, but the Wildcats were less efficient on offense than Duke in a loss to Wisconsin, although 1.17 ppp is still scoring pretty well. Maryland absolutely got killed on the boards going 30/50 on defensive chances and 7/49 on offensive chances. Not surprisingly, Villanova had a 29-10 advantage in second chance points.
Might dabble on an Indiana team that has lost to BU, Ole Miss, George Mason and is coming off a loss against Maryland. Pittsburgh is 7-1, but if you count legitimate opponents you can downgrade that to 0-1. As a historically decent program, Indiana probably isn’t as unpopular as they should be and Pitt’s two most noticed games this year are a blowout to Texas and a 2OT win against Duquesne. Not exactly my favorite play here.
Another marginal option could be TCU taking on Texas Tech. The Red Raiders coming off a big win against Washington only giving one point. The two knocks on this are, not on ESPN or a high profile game and my #HornedFrog boner may be carrying over sports.