I encourage anyone to go read Bill Simmons column. It’s hilarious, although it might drive you crazy first.
It did make me realize, though, I was looking at football all wrong:
“In football? Statistics can help. Absolutely. But you still need to watch games to have an educated opinion.”
With that, I realized my look at football was all wrong. I need to watch more game tape.
Cleveland +3.5 v. Detroit:
I’ve watched the game tape live from Monday Night’s game once(that might be more than most people) and I’m hoping Cleveland has Cribbs available. I’m pretty sure he is worth almost all of their points. Generally don’t think people will care too much about this game, but after Cleveland’s masterful performance on Monday Night I like the Browns.
Kansas City +9.5 v. Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh lost last week, but that’s okay because people generally think Cincinnati is a good team. Can’t see Kansas City being a popular option here this week.
Oakland +9.5 v. Cincinnati
Speaking of Cincinnati, I need to go back and watch some game film to see how good they really are, but I get the feeling that they are above average if not good. However, they have a really easy schedule going forward and I think they have a great chance of wrapping up the second bye in the AFC. They could be very fadeable in the playoffs. Oakland is my favorite side of the week, as they have lost 3 straight.
Tampa Bay +11.5 v. New Orleans
The last few weeks say this one is a little more marginal than you might expect. New Orleans has noticeable struggled(out-gained by the Rams!) in the last few weeks and Tampa Bay is turning into who we thought they were. Still, I think the overall impressions of these teams are enough in this one.
Ravens PK v. Indianapolis
This line is somewhat shady, but I’m not taking Indianapolis after film study reveals they got lucky because BILL BELICHICK IS INSANE.
Seattle +11.5 v. Minnesota
This was my favorite play of the week coming in, considering Minnesota seemingly covers every week and Seattle is awful. The consensus numbers I have seen aren’t as strong as I imagined, but I’m still heavily leaning to Seattle.
Bears +3.5 v. Philadelphia
Great. Can’t wait to be on the Bears this week against an Eagles team that has lost a few games in a row. FO loves the Eagles(predictably), but my eye test is not quite as high on them, which makes me feel a little better.
St. Louis +9.5 v. Arizona
The Rams have become pretty competitive over the last few weeks. Definitely makes me look twice at this, but its not like all of a sudden people are confusing them for good. Plus, they get to play the extremely overrated defending NFC Champs.
NYG -6.5 v. Atlanta
Giants have lost 4 straight and are sitting as clearly the best 5-4 team in the NFL. Falcons have the same record, but are not nearly as good.
Denver +2.5 v. San Diego
Just go look up Denver’s last three games if you want a reason for this one.
Washington +11.5 v. Dallas
There is enough to make this a pass. Washington is a pretty popular franchise and it looks pretty split action. However, that is not enough to change my opinion that Washington is still underrated if they don’t turn the ball over. The O-line looked like an actual NFL unit last week, so don’t expect that to continue.
Patriots -10.5 v. NYJ
Lost in the BILL BELICHICK IS AN ARROGANT, INSANE DOUSCHEBAG argument is that the Patriots out-gained the Colts 477-407 on the road and win that game about 80% of the time once it comes to fourth and 2. I think they established themselves as the best team in football, of course I need some more film study. There shouldn’t be too many opportunities to exploit it until the playoffs, but I doubt many people really believe a 6-3 team is the best in football.
Tennessee +4.5 v. Houston
I think Tennessee is a better team. They should still be getting points for playing on the road, but in a basically meaningless pick, that is enough for me.
These could change on Sunday morning, but for now this is what I’m working with:
Jacksonville -8.5 v. Buffalo
Green Bay -6.5 v. San Francisco
As of now here is the leans list: