THURSDAY NIGHT

Needless to say, I was less than thrilled when I woke up this morning and found Robert Allenby and Camilo sitting atop the leaderboard. Then I found out Sergio has adopted a cross handed putting stroke.

Updated Odds to win Dubai World Championship:

Like with Donald at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, this appears to be just flat wrong. So I think it is important to evaluate all the things that could possibly be at work here.

Obvious the main guy that sticks out is Big Shot Bob Allenby. My three concerns are:
-He played really well yesterday, hence got attention
-This is way way way off from the Vegas line, and there is enough estimation in my above percentages to worry me when that happens.
-This garbage in the middle of tournaments has not turned out all that well for me.

The first and third are easily dismissed for me. I think they are concerns that are more meaningless than rational. The second one, though is legit. My standard deviation conversions for three rounds are far from perfect. They are basically taken from tournaments played in the last two years. This is why I don’t really fire away on these too much if there is a small edge.

My numbers give Bob and insane 15% edge. I think when it is that big, it’s safe to say there is something there. Rory could play to the insane evaluations of him. You could be generous with Bob’s imense choking abilities. You can give Lee Westwood too much credit. You can re-estimate my standard deviation for three rounds to favor players more shots away. You can do all that, and it’s still hard to believe there isn’t at least some value on Allenby. I think you can make the same case for Villegas, as well.

It also helps, that I didn’t pull these guys out of nowhere. They were options prior to the tournament, and I think they remain underrated right now.

Round 2:
Vijay -105 v. Ryo(1)-Rd 2, Dunlop
Johan Edfors +169 v. Rory McIlroy(1)-Rd 2, Dubai
Camilo Villegas +131 v. Lee Westwood(1)-Rd 2, Dubai
Camilo Villegas to win +1200(.77)
Camilo Villegas top-5 +245(2)
Robert Allenby top-10 -115(4)
Robert Allenby top-5 +200(4)
Robert Allenby to win +1100(.83)

For the Edfors match, I adjusted Rory to the same number I did to produce him as the field favorite coming into this week. That produced a fair line of -170/170. Since I don’t think Rory is close to that right now, that was a go.

That might be considered a little crazy if you look at it on the basis of one tournament. However, when you consider what is coming up until after New Year’s I guarantee these will be the best looks for awhile, and are probably the best looks since Big Shot Bob in Spain and Alex Noren during the late summer. When you look at it like that, I think they make sense.

After all that, no football or basketball tonight.

Advertisements

Leave a comment

Filed under Uncategorized

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s