Sorry, I was going to bang this post out earlier today, but the space bar on my computer was malfunctioning, which made typing a little hard.
Think of this event at the BMW Championship at Cog Hill, minus Tiger and Phil, and with a slightly weaker bottom half of the field(European Tour is not as good as US PGA Tour). There are enough big names to make this a pretty interesting event.
Thought about Donald, Villegas, Allenby and Garcia this week. I think all are solid plays, but here is the arbitrary reasoning I used. I’m okay to let Villegas pass by, because while he may currently be underrated, his swing looks more out of control than I can ever remember. Bob is probably a good price, but he seems to fall apart every time he gets close to the lead and finish t-7. Something is not quite right with playing Sergio. Good logic? Probably not. That’s how I’m rationalizing only taking Donald, because I don’t want to back more than one player. In the end, probably all similar looks, but Donald gets the nod:
Luke Donald to win +5000(.4)
Sergio -110 v. Fisher(1)
Ogilvy +100 v. Molinari(1)
Vijay Singh -110 v. Ryo(1)
Fisher is pretty overrated in Europe, in my opinion. While he may be a pretty good player, he is not in Sergio’s class right now. Molinari has had a great 2009, and has some upside, but he has not been better than Ogilvy in either of the past two years, and Ogilvy despite a really good start to the year, has actually under-performed from 2008. Molinari finished third last week, which makes this solid.
Ryo took a little double checking over on KenPom’s ratings, because I don’t have too much on the Japanese Tour. He had Ryo at 190, which is right around where I have him on the major tours. People need to keep it in their pants with Ryo, he really hasn’t been all that great against major competition yet, despite a lot of hype. In 4 years, this might seem pretty silly, but right now Vijay is a much stronger player.
I came up with these numbers for the tournament. Adjusted Rory a little to favor 2009 over 2008 because of his age. I’ve said this before, but if you want to take Rory, for that to be a fair price you have to believe Rory is the second best player in the world right now.