Tiger may not be playing against the strongest field, but he has still played two incredible rounds the past two days. Just using some estimation I have this field as +.33 overall in my rankings(weak European field is ~.1 + European Tour adjustment is ~.23). Take that into account and Tiger still is averaging around -1.6 for his first two rounds. He would probably have a multiple shot lead over any field in the world playing like that.
How to value him against a field like this has been a running debate for me. Before the week started I had a 20% edge, which was down to 10% yesterday and now is ~-12%. I think its safe to say that there is probably value against Tiger right now, considering I’m almost positive that my rankings were, if anything, low on this field.
For Round 3:
Tiger to lose +345(1)
Goggin +250 v. Tiger(1)
Tiger had his once in a century bad round in contention last week at HSBC, and had one two months before that at the PGA, so there is a 0% chance either of these win.
Don’t feel like thinking about the garbage in Asia. That is directly correlated to Y.E. being matched up with to last year’s champion.