If you’re wondering why I have been skipping reviews lately, its because a) I’m feeling lazy and b) I don’t really think there was anything to review. Since the US Open, I’m about 13 units and killing match-ups and outrights. The only possible thing to discuss is how to treat individual round action, but I’m not too concerned about that.
Last week, however, brought up 4 issues:
1) I wanted to fade Poulter, Fisher and McIlroy as I thought they were three most overrated players in the field. For Fisher and Poulter, AK was the obvious option. There were many more options to fade McIlroy. I narrowed it down to Kim and Garcia as the best options. By my numbers the edge on each line was almost the same. Obviously, flat betting Kim would risk less(but also win less frequently). Usually, like in Football, I would take that option. However, already on Kim twice I went with Garcia, in case Kim had a terrible tournament. Is there any value in diversifying over the long run? I’m not sure.
2) Noren vs. Moore. This was definitely a play, but I got a little too excited when it came out and made it a double. Just a stupid mistake, I felt bad about this by Wednesday night. That being said, it was still pretty close Noren hit more greens for the week, and Moore chipped in 4 times.
3) Was Tiger the right decision? I’m going to stand by my logic and say yes for two reasons: My numbers had a fairly accurate judge on every player in the field. Tiger went off at higher odds than in 4 tournaments with stronger/deeper fields. I don’t want to be making marginal decisions on Tiger, because that might be like playing Indy this week in the NFL, but I think this was the right decision. It’s definitely up in the air though.
4) The value of Rory McIlroy. The books have clearly annoited Rory as a step below Phil Mickelson. Is this fair? Probably not. Let’s be clear, though, Rory is uniquely talented like maybe five golfers(Phil, Ernie, Tiger, Sergio, Rory) since the early 90s in that they have been very good at a very young age. Rory will probably be as good as Sergio and Phil within a few years. He will probably be better than Tiger one day(when Tiger is in his 40s, as dominant in relation to the field is probably doubtful). The point is, if Rory works as hard as Tiger does, he can be that good. That is the level of his talent. But, he is not that good overnight. It will take a few years of really hard work before he is among the games best. He is certainly on the way now, but not there yet. Moral of the story, Rory as a favorite is fadeable, but I’d be careful and make sure you have the right match-up.
Overall dropped about 3 units last week.
Remember when I said I had a good gauge on the field last week in relation to Tiger. Well this week I don’t. I went back and did the average for players with less than 40 rounds on PGA,EPGA or NW Tours(a lot) from last year’s tourney and came up with an estimation that put Tiger at -155 to win this week. When I’m that far off, with that big of a variable, I’m going to pass.
The problem with this is that almost everyone else’s odds are realistic. If you set the field back to where Tiger is around +140, the field becomes unrealistically strong, approximately a slightly above average PGA Tour event. Now, I’m all for the Australian Tour, but lets be honest if these guys were really that good they would be playing for more money on one of the bigger tours. Again, I think the option here is Tiger or pass, so I’ll pass.
Straight from my rankings I came up with this match-up list: Don’t care v. Don’t care. Seriously, though, I have the most value on Sam Little v. Terry Pilkadaris and Greg Chalmers v. Steven Bowditch. I’ll just come out and say it, If you want to stay up until 3 in the morning following that, you need help.
UBS Hong Kong:
I can’t say it took me a while to decide Ben Curtis is the best outright play this week. I’d also hear arguments for Robert Karlsson as I’d hope the Swede’s vision is back by now, but that is a fine line with a player approaching 40 and who led Europe’s money list last season.
Curtis is about due for a t-7 finish.
Ben Curtis to win +6050(.16)
If the price is right, and top-5s are posted, I might take a shot on that as well.
Remember when I said find the right person to fade McIlroy with. Well, Lee Westwood is not that person. Considered Anders Hansen over Jaidee and Jeev over WT Lin(defending champ). I like Jeev the best, but I don’t think that is worth following, either.
Good luck if you play anything.
NOTE: I’ll put the golf contest standings up on Thursay or Friday. I’m 99% sure Hoopinion won because he hit two groups last week, although I want to double check and I wanted to get these posts up before the tournaments start.