Remember, if you are still in the running of the golf contest, you have until approximately 6 tonight to get your picks in.

The list of people I think make acceptable picks to win this week is this:
Tiger Woods
Steve Marino
Camilo Villegas
Robert Allenby.

As I have said before, I like Villegas, but his game just looks like it is all over the place right now. He has definitely under performed this year I think, but I also don’t remember him practically falling over, every swing in 2008, either.

Bob is marginal and considering he chokes away every tournament when he is close, I don’t think that is worth it.

Speaking of choking it away in contention every time, Steve Marino. For some reason, Marino seems to have the most reasonable price of anyone in the field considering Tiger is actually playing in this event. Some of the other top names prices hardly changed, although there is a ~35% chance Tiger will win.

I can’t make a case against Steve, but it’s also hard to make one for him with Tiger at over 2-1 out there.

I realize this is more handicapping than contrarianism, but I don’t see how I can avoid Tiger. In addition to him underperforming this year from last(may or may not be reasonable) I have him at over 40% to win and that is with 2/3 of his rounds coming this year at a lower performance level. Also, Tiger went off at +180 at the PGA Championship and lower than +200 at all of the PGA Playoff events leading up to the Tour Championship. There is no way that this field is stronger than the PGA Championship.

So, the final decision was either pass the outrights or take Tiger. I went with Tiger:

Tiger to win the HSBC Champions +215(2)

When going through the match-ups three players stuck out to me as overrated.

Ross Fisher
Ian Poulter
Rory McIlroy

Obviously, Fisher and Poulter won last week, so that is a pretty easy explanation. Rory McIlroy is a little bit harder case, because he certainly has the talent to be one of the world’s elite, but I see no proof that he is currently among them(meaning: Phil, Sergio, Furyk, Stricker).

Anthony Kim was the obvious answer to go against them. His game seems to be rounding into form and he definitely has the upside.

Anthony Kim -110 v. Ross Fisher(1)
Anthony Kim +115 v. Ian Poulter(1)
Sergio Garcia -120 v. Rory McIlroy(1)
Alexander Noren -105 v. Ryan Moore(2)

Noren v. Moore was another obvious play. I took Garcia against McIlroy just to limit the risk on gang banging Kim in case something stupid happens, like accidentally breaking his driver than being DQ-ed for playing a non-conforming club. My numbers say the edge on those matches are about the same.

Kim has been hit down against Fisher, but I played that because Kim was -120/100 against Fisher over 36 holes last week. Given two more rounds, which should help in exposing the weaker player I don’t see a legitimate reason why it should now be -110/-120.

Hopefully these all win easily, so I don’t have to stay up until 6 in the morning sweating them out.



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5 responses to “WGC-HSBC CHAMPIONS

  1. Eric

    Aren’t Yang and Cabrera playing in this event? I haven’t looked at the offered match-ups…did they get matched against each other or something? Otherwise, I’m a wee bit surprised that fading those two isn’t on your to-do list.

  2. jalnichols

    Yang is matched against Ishikawa (at 5 Dimes, MB, and the Greek) and Cabrera isn’t playing.

  3. Yeah, Jalnichols is right. Hoping we can get some 1-rounders against Y.E., who is a former champion of this event, later in the week.

  4. I can see why you might pick Kim v Fisher and Noren v Moore, but this is the sort of course that might suit Poulter, being a short hitter, and when he’s in form he tends to be on form for a few weeks.

    As for Garcia, his short game is not suited at all for a course with tricky greens such as this, whilst Mcilroy has the game for any sort of course.

  5. “but this is the sort of course that might suit Poulter,”

    I try to pay no or little attention to stuff like this. It may matter, but definitely not as much as people think it does.

    “Poulter, being a short hitter, and when he’s in form he tends to be on form for a few weeks.”


    “As for Garcia, his short game is not suited at all for a course with tricky greens such as this, whilst Mcilroy has the game for any sort of course.”

    Hmm, Garcia’s game seemed to be suited pretty well for this course when he won last year. Overall skill is a much better predictor than randomly trying to guess who’s game is better for what course. I’m not sure this was a great play in the end, but over the past 2 years Garcia has been a much better player and its not really that close.

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