Let’s start with Singapore, since that is easiest. Pass. Thought about Phil against Paddy and Ogilvy against Els but neither of those were strong enough.
First the groups odds, published earlier, were done with some approximations of hole averages and standard deviations in my match play simulation. I feel fairly confident about those. Then to come up with the win, I calculated a player’s odds against the average player advancing out off all the other groups over 36 holes. That is probably pretty accurate, but that is clearly an estimation.
So, let’s look at the +EV group(Honestly never considered anyone else out of it) and see what I come up with:
Paul Casey– Injury. I’m not messing around with Casey, Martin Kaymer’s performance last week aside.
Jeev Milkha Singh: Singh will be a big dog against Westwood and Villegas, but should be pretty even with Ross Fisher, reputation aside. After that Jeev would likely be an underdog against any player he faces in the final four of the tournament. Still, Jeev is pretty underrated and 50-1 is a very good price.
Sergio Garcia: Garcia is in the group of death, but I feel like my estimations did a pretty good job accounting for that. After that, he would probably be at least -130 against anyone else in the field. Garcia is a great ballstriker, no one thinks he can putt, and he has underperformed this year. With the nice price of +750 sitting out there at 5dimes, this is tough to pass.
Camilo Villegas: I think the difference between my estimation of to win and 5dimes revolves around the fact that I have Camilo asalmost as good as Westwood and significantly better than Fisher, which is out of line with the books, but I don’t think all together wrong.
Robert Allenby: Allenby is coming out of the group of death, so that’s why is price is so low. His odds of advancing are actually lower than worse players because of the group, but I have Westwood and Villegas as the only players that he should be an underdog against outside of his group. Have a tough time ignoring this one, last week aside.
Anthony Kim: I’m sure Kim has spent the last week boosing it up in a vacation town in Spain. That’s not a knock, because it seems like he does that at every tournament. I keep hearing whispers that Kim is rounding into form, and he certainly flashed a good putter at times at Harding Park, but I’d like to see him come around more in the ball-striking area. Still, Kim is pretty tempting here, considering his really good chance to get out of the group stage(Thank you, Scott Strange)
This left a tough decision, so I did something crazy:
Jeev(+5000),Sergio(+750),Big Shot Bob(+2250) and Camilo Villegas(+1615) to win. Flat bet risking 2.38 to win 7.61.
Sergio, Jeev had really good prices. Bob and Camilo were probably my two favorite coming into the week. Don’t ask me why I left off Kim, there was just something about his “great match play history” that I didn’t like and the price wasn’t as good at 14-1 at Pinnacle.
For Day 1 only,
Camilo +110 v. Fisher(1)
Jeev +190 v. Westwood(1)
Allenby +140 v. Garcia(1)
If you have any questions about the first two let me know, but I think they are an extenuation of opinions already expressed in this post or my bracket breakdowns. For Allenby and Garcia, I just don’t think there is that big a difference between the two, although I will readily admit that Sergio is the better player.
Viking Classic picks up later.