This event is just awesome. It’s got a really good format, that the WGC Match-Play should think about copying somehow. It also has Brackets named after Seve( a legit golf legend) and Mark McCormick, Gustaf Larsson and Assar Gabrielson. If you have ever heard of any of those players, good for you.

Anyway, lets start with the Seve Bracket.

Ran these through my Match-play simulator from XLS sports to come up with the individual match odds. Then used the President’s cup simulator to come up with the following point projections below:
To come up with the percentages to win the group, I used an average and standard deviation for each player, in terms of points. This probably isn’t a perfect way to do it, but I was lazy and this was fairly quick.

Kim has to be the look to win this group. Casey coming off injury is not someone I would touch. Goosen is on my hate list.

Not sure how Scott Strange got here, but he is not that good. If he regularly played on the PGA Tour, he would be spending his winner at Q-School.

I’ll wait to see what the line is, but I think Kim is going to be too small of an edge to push for Group winner. Kim-Goosen and Strange-Goosen, are probably worth playing.

I’ll be interested to see how they value Paul Casey. So those match-ups are wait and see.

Schedule for the Matches:
Thu-Casey/Strange, Goosen/Kim, Casey/Kim, Goosen/Strange,
Fri-Kim/Strange, Goosen/Casey

*10,000 simulations for everything. Thanks again, XLS Sports.


1 Comment

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  1. Cool work here, glad you are finding value in the spreadsheets

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