CHRISTMAS IN CONTRARIANVILLE

After a self imposed two week suspension from these posts, I am making my triumphant return. This is going to be awesome because either I am going to win the pool for the week by 9, or I am going 0-the week and will be the laughing stock of the pool. Either way, there should be something entertaining to look back on.

Picks ranked somewhat in order. Lines from ESPN’s pigskin pick’em

Rams +13.5 v. Indy
I was telling somewhat this week that this game is like Vegas betting the Rams v. the world. Not, Vegas shading the line, and taking a side in one game. Just straight betting on the game. I’m not sure anyone is going to be taking St. Louis this week. This is at least a double, maybe a quad, although my one worry is that this won’t be the highest volume game.

Honestly, though, it’s probably a four. What was Vegas thinking? I think they could have set this line at 20 and it would still probably draw more Indy action. I can’t figure out why they would go 13 unless they feel really good about it.

Tampa Bay +14.5 v. NE
I thought this line was high at first, then I realized it was on a neutral field and that makes a lot more sense. By sense, I mean it will draw completely one sided action. New England is back, baby! 59-0 last week against the Titans and now they get to face a Tampa Bay team that has been outscored by over 13 points per game this season. This one is definitely stronger than anything last week so I don’t see why its not a double either.

Kansas City +4.5 v. San Diego
Not sure why San Diego is so popular here, but okay. Another solid lean to the Chiefs.

Miami +6.5 v. New Orleans
Again, this is awesome. New Orleans just scored 47 points and dominated the Giants last week. Of course they are only laying less than a TD this week. Not sure if were going to get the team that controlled the ball for 80% of the game against Indianapolis, or the team that let up over 10 yards per play. Doesn’t matter, they won’t keep it within a touchdown.

Washington +7.5 v. Philadelphia
I have literally not heard one good thing about Washington this week. I mean no one is confusing this team for good, but they are also not the worst team in the history of football, either.

Cleveland +7.5 @ Green Bay
This is somewhat dumb, as 7.5 would be -108/+101 in GB’s favor on the half point calculator. Obviously, Cleveland is the strong lean here and there will probably be 4 people in my pool who take Cleveland, if that, so I’m passing the small edge for a big oppurtunity to make up ground on most of the people in the pool 48% of the time.

Dallas -3.5
v. Atlanta
After last week’s “convincing” Atlanta win, I’m not sure who is going to back crappy Dallas against the very strong Falcons.

Pittsburgh -4.5 v. Minnesota
Still not sure if this will be a play, but against the might Brett Favre’s it is definitely the way to go in pigskin pick’em.

Arizona +7.5 @ NYG
Given last week, I’m not totally sold on Arizona. But, they are slightly less popular on what I’ve checked so far and the line is -7 at Pinnacle so I’ll go with the Cardinals.

Raiders +6.5 v. NYJ
Basically the current line is 6, so going with the Raiders. I’m not sure what to think about this game overall, though, because of the Raiders big win last week and Sanchez laying an egg. That definitely affected the line, more than I think it should, but I’m not convinced 9-10 would be a fair line for this game at all.

Games NOT worth thinking about:
Buffalo +7.5
Chicago +1.5
Houston -3.5

LEANS-
Strong: Washington, Miami, Cleveland, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Kansas City
Regular: Dallas, Pittsburgh
Borderline: Arizona

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