I’ve already said Allenby is the most obvious look in the field, but here is a look at some of the other players in the field for match-up purposes.
Robert Karlsson and Martin Kaymer: I lumped these two players together for one reason. Injury factors. I went back and looked at four players(Karlsson, Vijay, Phil and Tiger) coming off extended injury breaks in the past year. While far from convincing scientific evidence all of these players played below their averages pretty significantly in the first few events back.
I don’t think they are perfect comparison’s to Kaymer as he is much younger and less well established than that group, but still 25-1 is a tough price to pay on a guy who was the leading European player until last week. Kaymer is young so the jump he has made this year is somewhat explainable, but I still think he might be playing over his head just a bit.
Danny Willett: Willett is a young player who has shown promising results over the past two years and definite upside. Still, there is no way he is one of the ten best players in the field. Not sure why, but these European lines get kind of crazy on young players with a few good showings in the past couple of weeks.
Charl Schwartzel: See above.
That doesn’t really leave a whole lot of options, I guess. Allenby matched up against Willett was an easy slam dunk play. Passing on Kaymer against Cabrera because of injury concerns. That leaves this:
Allenby -110 v. Willet(2)
Allenby Top-5 +500(1.67)
Frys.com stuff coming later.