ALMOST MADE MONEY

2-2, so ate a little juice.

This post last week proved far more popular than I thought for something I copied straight off NFL.com, but whatever, I’ll try it again:

NFL stats:
nflstatswk7

Overrated:
I think it is safe to go with the Broncos as the overrated team of this week. Wins over the Eagles and Giants, by big margins, have the Saints as the leading team in the NFC, but I would still put the Broncos ahead. The Saints aren’t as good as their league best +19 point differential(still lead the league in Turnover differential), but I’d say the Broncos are more overrated.

The Broncos rank only 6th in the league in Yard differential and are 3rd in Turnover differential. They are probably a strong team, but I’m not willing to say they are the league’s first or second best. Take for example last night’s game, the Broncos and Chargers were about equal in yards gained, but Broncos won by 11. Take out some terrible special teams and a lost fumble and it is a different game.

It will be interesting to see how the Broncos fair as they take on Baltimore, Pittsburgh and the Giants in 3 of the next 4 weeks.

Underrated:
I think the Titans take the cake for underrated team of the week, especially coming off whatever happened to them in the snow on Sunday. They have a laughable -19 point differential this season.

Yards-wise, they are a little better. But the main thing is they have lost 6 straight games, which is probably not fair, and they are a league worst -10 in turnover differential. Kerry Collins may be bad, but I doubt he is this bad and the defense has also faced NE, Indy and Pittsburgh, three of the leagues better offenses.

Titans are off this week, and I don’t see any really good match-ups fore them until Indy in week 13(I’m assuming by week 12 people will realize Arizona is not good).

First reactions for next week:
St. Louis +13 v. Indy:
I stepped in my NASA Contrarianville time machine and took this quote directly from Bill Simmons next column:
“How high would Vegas have to set this line for you to take the Rams?17? 24? 142?”
I will now light myself on fire.

Pittsburgh -4 v. Minnesota:
The consensus numbers will have to be outrageous for me to play this. I want no part of this because:
A) Minnesota is a really good football team, save one over-rated QB.
B)Pittsburgh is not
C) I do not believe for one second that Pittsburgh is 1.5 pts better than Baltimore or 1 pt better than Minnesota.

This line is going to draw Minny action, but it better be really one sided before I bite.*

*This was my first reaction. After looking at those stats, I feel better about playing Pittsburgh.

Washington +7 v. Philly:
Washington can’t do anything right, except play defense really well. Haven’t seen any of their games, but with the parts they have on that offense why are they putting up such horrendous numbers?

Tampa Bay +14.5 v. NE
Again like St. Louis, this is a huge number to lay in NFL and people know that, but the 2007 Pats+1927 Yankees are back, Baby!

Miami +6.5 v. New Orleans
New Orleans are really good. That being said, they haven’t seen the Pelican/Single Wing yet.

Cleveland +6.5 v. Green Bay
This week is about 5 times better than last week. Just looking at these leans, I’m not sure who wants to back any of these teams.

Line is not out, at least that I can find, for Baltimore-Denver, but Baltimore -2ish is probably an early lean as well.

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2 Comments

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2 responses to “ALMOST MADE MONEY

  1. Apparently, Baltimore and Denver both have by weeks and don’t play until next week. Still lean early to Balty.

  2. mike honcho

    In regards to the skins comment, I’ll spare you the 10,000 word explanation and just say that the skins have a shit show of an offensive line among other things.

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