STATISTICS ARE A BITCH

In terms of my adjusted scores, Leif Olson is about .43 standard deviations* worse than the average PGA Tour Pro over the last two years.

That is actually pretty bad. In terms of raw strokes that means he is about 1.25 strokes per round worse than the average PGA Tour Pro and .25 strokes per round worse than the average Nationwide Tour Pro.

At first, I thought I might be a little off considering Leif is only 148th on the moneylist and the average for PGA Tour players in my rankings fell around 125 last year. Then I checked out Leif’s PGA results this year, and he has only made 5/18 cuts.

Suffice it to say, Leif is bad.

In other weeks, I would never talk about Leif, but his third place finish at Turning Stone apparently made 5dimes think he was a lot better than he actually was. Leif’s sum total in my adjusted rankings was -3.81 better than the mean(-.95 per round). Well, he decided to give that back today, and then some with a round that was over 5 standard deviations worse than the mean. So, over the last 5 rounds Leif actually has managed to be significantly worse than the PGA Tour average(almost equal to the Nationwide Tour Average), which is quite the impressive feat with four rounds that equated to a third place finish.

Like I said, regression to the mean is a bitch.

On to stuff people might actually care about, Portugal Masters In-running odds:
portugalmasters
I honestly have no idea where they are coming up with these odds for Rory McIlory from. Even on this year alone, which might be more meaningful because of his age, the 15-1 price at 5dimes is ludicrous. I would say they knew something, but this is the book that offered Mitch Lowe +100 v. Quiros and Johnson Wagner +100 v. Leif.

Timberlake Open:
jtshriners1
I’m not going to worry about either of these events right now, but I would say the way to go is some combination of Westwood, Schwartzel, Molinari in Europe and forget about the PGA Tour.

Good Luck if you try anything.

*To put a .43 z-score into perspective, the PGA club proffessionals at the PGA Championship were about .90 standard deviations over the past three years. Adjust that to the field, and it is about .65. A.K.A. Leif is not all that much better than #MitchLowe. I’m also fairly certain I could break 88 over 50% of the time at this course.

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2 Comments

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2 responses to “STATISTICS ARE A BITCH

  1. 17843

    Do you have an opinion on the Tom Lehman +100/Tom Watson -130 currently offered at 5Dimes?

  2. Don’t really follow senior golf, but based on Watson at the Open(and I think he may have finished pretty high at the last senior major) I’d lean to Lehman. I have Lehman as above PGA Tour average for the past 2 years, I seriously doubt Watson is that high.

    If you want a decent ranking system that includes Senior golfers I’d check out what KenPom has to say(Only through US PGA).

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