JUSTIN TIMBERLAKE OPEN

Field:
Michael Sim: Not playing.

Steve Marino: ridiculously priced at 40-1.

Anthony Kim: If Kim came in drunk at 4am in San Francisco, a weekend on the Vegas strip opens up all kind of possibilities.

Rest of the Field: Not sure why people are bashing this event, it has a much stronger field than I remember last year.

That left me with two options: Nicholas Thompson and D.J. Trahan.

Thompson was easy to throw out, because he really isn’t all that good, though he does have some potential and the ability to go low, and he played very well last time out at Turning Stone. I’m not about to say he can have two good showings in a row.

That leaves DJ. Fine. Trahan won a few years back at similar birdie fest at the Hope, and has played below his 2008 performance this year. On the other hand, D.J. is another one that is probably more likely to be arrested with two show girls, a dead hooker and lots of crack in his hotel room this weekend than actually win this event.

D.J. to win +9000(.1)
D.J. top-5 +1800(.52)

Match-ups:
Steve Marino +120 v. Nick Watney(1)
Simply put, there is not that much difference between these two players.

Mathew Goggin +105 v. Marc Leishman(1)
Not going to pass this up especially with Goggin’s gritty play last time out. I may be off base here, but WDing after a 78 is not enough for me to think the difference between these players has shifted 15 cents.

Johnson Wagner +100 v. Lief Olson(1)
Kind of pulled this one out of thin air, but Lief fits the bill for a fade as a garbage player coming off one hot finish last week. Can’t say this is the most contrarian, but my numbers have done pretty well lately when there is a huge disparity in skill level/price.

No round plays for now, I’ll wait until later for that.

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1 Comment

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One response to “JUSTIN TIMBERLAKE OPEN

  1. I’m glad Leif decided to define “regression to the mean in 18 holes” with his round today.

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