I had a good week in golf(+ is good), no doubt. But it could have been so much better. Lost a little in the President’s cup, won a decent amount on three pretty incredible rounds from Alex Noren. Here is a recap:

Justin Leonard. I had +103 on this bet. Leonard with a three footer is at least 90%. Of course he misses.

– I forced on Kenny Perry. I’m not going to necessarily say KP against Ryo was bad, but it is definitely something I didn’t need to play.

-But, I can forget all this, because the Clark/Weir v. Stricker/Woods foursome match on Sunday morning was honestly one of my worst golf losses ever.

First, this was literally the perfect match. Stricker is probably fairly valued but has been dominant of late. If you follow golf closely you know this. Tiger is Tiger and while I’ve been on him a few times when he was “down” Tiger ended up winning the Fed-Ex cup, won during the playoffs and was killing with Stricker on Friday.

Clark is virtually unknown, because he doesn’t win on the PGA Tour and has the least flashy game ever, but he is a really, really good player. Weir is a major champion, but I felt like that was getting overshadowed by the fact that he really hasn’t done a whole lot since and like Clark is a short hitter. With the exception of maybe Clark/Allenby there was not a better underrated pairing to face Tiger.

Then, this happened:
note: Xcel graphs continue to be a challenge for me, I switched the axis labels.
Even better, is this EV graph:

That is the graph of rough odds after each hole. But let’s break this down even further starting at the 17th green. Tiger had a 30 foot putt, Mike Weir had a five footer. I’m estimating here but Tiger makes that putt at best 30% of the time(it was relatively straight, his average from that distance is lower). Weir probably makes his 5-footer 70% of the time. I’m saying at best there was a 10% chance of Tiger winning that hole. Add in the roughly 35% chance of Tiger/Stricker winning 18, and there was about a 96-97% chance I was not losing that bet. Of Course, Tiger made the putt, stuffed the 4 iron, doesn’t appear to be bound by the laws of physics or mathematics and that’s why he is Tiger Woods.

-To end on a good note, Alex Noren was not only a pleasant surprise for the week, but also downright good. He made a triple early on Thursday and another bogey, so he was +3 through 5 holes. After that he didn’t make another bogey until 17 on Sunday(Three Putt!). Overall, Noren’s stats were downright impressive, hitting all 36 greens in regulation over the weekend. The triple from Noren is not surprising at all. That he recovered and was fourth best in the field over the final 3 rounds(probably even better over the last 67 holes) is. Good work Alex, see you in Shanghai.

Next Week:
Surprisingly good field. Defintiely did not expect to see Furyk, Mahan or Kim on the entry list when I checked. I have a few ideas, but hopefully I’ll be forced to delay them until Grayhawk, where I like them better. Noren is again in a strong field at the Portugal Masters, but I’m not sure that will be playable.

Updated Rankings will be up sometime later this week.


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