Match 7: Retief Goosen/Adam Scott v. Phil Mickelson/Justin Leonard
Surprisingly, my simulations were fairly high on the Goosen/Scott team, even though individually they are both worse than Leonard and Mickelson. I think this is because Goosen is only slightly worse than Leonard, while Mickelson is only a little better than both of them. The fourth leg, Adam Scott, is definitely worse, but has a really high standard deviation. Balanced with a more consistent player in better ball, low scores from Scott could be a good thing. Still, I wouldn’t go as far as calling them favorites. Looking at the players involved, I’m staying away from either side.
Match 8: Ernie Els/Mike Weir v. Anthony Kim/Jim Furyk
Don’t really see anything here. Anthony Kim and Furyk are better individually, but when you take the best ball scores, there is almost no difference by my numbers.
Match 9:Ryo Ishikawa/Y.E. Yang v. Kenny Perry/Sean O’Hair
If Greg Norman listened to me, this would be literally the perfect pairing for Tiger and Stricker(US’s best 2). Unfortunately going against Perry and O’Hair they are big dogs against average United States team members and Tiger/Stricker still tee off later.
Match 10: Vijay Singh/Tim Clark v. Lucas Glover/Stewart Cink
Again, this could be a decent spot to fade the two American major champions who are among the worst two on the American team. That being said, they could be better than Singh and Clark and it’s not like Singh is anywhere near the unknown talent that Clark is. Making the US team small favorites here is not too unreasonable.
Match 11: Robert Allenby/ Camilo Villegas v. Zach Johnson/Hunter Mahan
My favorite match of the day. Zach Johnson is a former major champion and attempted caddy murderer. Hunter Mahan “makes more birdies than anyone.” On the other side of it, you have, in my opinion, the strongest possible international squad. This one should be 50-50 and I would make the internationals slightly favored.
Match 12: Geoff Ogilvy/Angel Cabrera v. Tiger Woods/Steve Stricker
After yesterday’s complete domination, taking the International team would be a decent option if it wasn’t one of my least favorite golfers and the king of match play.
Allenby/Villegas +110 v. Johnson/Mahan(1)-tie pushes.
Still working on the Odds, they will be up in a bit.