This match was legitimately crazy.
Thru the first 10 holes, there were only 2 that were not won by either team. In all, the USA won 7 holes and so did the Internationals.
I went back put in the scores from each hole and ran 500 simulations from that point and came up with the chart below. The percentages probably aren’t exact, but I wanted to do this quickly and they are certainly close enough. The EV line is on my(USA -.5 +103). It should be otherwise pretty self explanatory:
I’m estimating that Justin Leonard makes that putt at least 95 out of 100 times on the final hole. But, as Couples(surprisingly and smartly) said after, if you told them they got a half point after hole 5, they would be thrilled. Me, not so much.