JUSTIN LEONARD HATES FREEDOM

This match was legitimately crazy.

Thru the first 10 holes, there were only 2 that were not won by either team. In all, the USA won 7 holes and so did the Internationals.

I went back put in the scores from each hole and ran 500 simulations from that point and came up with the chart below. The percentages probably aren’t exact, but I wanted to do this quickly and they are certainly close enough. The EV line is on my(USA -.5 +103). It should be otherwise pretty self explanatory:
fuckingjustin
I’m estimating that Justin Leonard makes that putt at least 95 out of 100 times on the final hole. But, as Couples(surprisingly and smartly) said after, if you told them they got a half point after hole 5, they would be thrilled. Me, not so much.

EDIT:
Adding this chart, because that graph is not the easiest to read:
fuckingjustin2

Advertisements

4 Comments

Filed under Uncategorized

4 responses to “JUSTIN LEONARD HATES FREEDOM

  1. And…the chart is even harder to read. Sorry, If you care you’re going to have to click on them twice.

  2. Am I retarded or is the EV line at 50% the whole way through? That can’t be right.

  3. Nope I’m retarded. That’s the 49%ish(+103) fair value line. The EV line was down one further in the spreadsheet and didn’t make it on the graph.

    So, I guess if Furyk/Leonard win% is above the dotted line it is +EV, if it below it is -EV.

  4. Pingback: RED, WHITE & EFF YOU « REXFORD BUZZSAW

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s