Yup, I currently sit in DFL in my pool. I challenge anyone to put together consecutive weeks of 6, 7 and 5 in ESPN pigskin pick’em. So, were changing things up with the format this week:

Cleveland +5.5 v. Cincinnati
Pinny: +5.5 -102
I could spend a three whole paragraphs explaining why Eric Mangini sucks, the Browns have been legitimately awful and they are starting Derek Anderson this week. Instead, I’ll just wonder how they will ever cover 5.5 in this game.

Kansas City +9.5
v. NYG
Pinny: +9 -116
Kansas City is the least popular team on ESPN this week, is 0-3, is having offensive troubles and the Giants just keep rolling. Matt Cassell has been less than impressive this year, which certainly bodes well for my fantasy team this week.

I wish I could switch the opponent’s
New Orleans -6.5 v. NYJ
Washington -7.5 v. Tampa Bay
Who wouldn’t love to see New Orleans v. Tampa Bay and Washington v. NYJ this week. Honestly, I spent less than 1 minute making these picks. Two quick notes, -6.5 in New Orleans is a lot. I’m not sure about this, but it looks like Vegas doesn’t really trust the Jets. The more I look at football outsiders and think about how an overly aggressive defense will fare against a good offense(Ryan’s blitzes fooled New England, probably won’t fool another NFL team with the same stuff) and FO has New Orleans as a legitimate defense, which should be interesting to see against Mark Sanchez.

The over in Washington seems like the way to go if you can’t avoid that crapfest. Washington’s offense is in disarray, Tampa Bay has a back-up QB on the road. Even 37 seems like a reach there.

Just shoot me now
Green Bay +3.5@ BrettFavreBrettFavreBrettFavre
Pinny: +3.5 -104
I will not watch one minute of this game, but I will be rooting for a crippling/life threatening injury to Brett Favre. Yes, that will be unbearable for two weeks, but in the long run less Brett is a good thing.

Strong Possibilities
Jacksonville +2.5 v. Tennessee
Pinny: +3 -111
Not that I don’t believe in Jacksonville, but I’m fairly concerned about Tenny’s 0-3. This might turn into the don’t really want to do it, but consensus makes it unavoidable Illinois-PSU game in the NFL this week.

St. Louis +10.5 v. San Francisco
Pinny: +9.5 -102
I kid you not, I sent this text message to a buddy who is a 49ers fan with about 2 minutes left in last weeks game, “I nominate SF as worst 3-0 team. GO RAMS!” Needless to say, 1 minute and 58 seconds later he was not too pleased.

Miami +1.5 v. Buffalo
Pinny: +1 -102
Sometimes I get a little depressed that the phrase, “Chad Henne starting QB” is all that it takes for me to get excited going against a team that is as genuinely awful as Buffalo. Note to Tony Sparano, just run the Wildcat all game. I was talking about this with AM on twitter earlier in the week, but it’s worth mentioning. The Wildcat fools no one, yet it seems to always average 5 yards per play, given that option or Chad Henne I’m rooting for a lot of Wildcat.

I’d like to know who is playing QB
Seattle +8.5 @ Indy
Pinny: +10.5 -109
The Seahawks will probably be a strong option regardless, considering most people either had the bears last week or saw Indianapolis dominate the Cardinals in primetime, but the price could change if Hasselbeck decides to play. If the line stays at 10.5 or drifts to 11, might take Indy for pigskin pick’em just for the 2 points of value.

Don’t Care
Dallas-3.5 @ Denver
Baltimore +2.5 @ New England
Houston -9.5 v. Oakland
Pittsburgh -6.5 v. San Diego

Only checked Wagerline so far on Dallas, and they are borderline public there and nothing out of the ordinary on ESPN, so for now I’ll side with FO’s extremely modest preseason projection on the Broncos and take Dallas. This one could change at gametime, though, because I’ll have to look into Denver and see if they will be unpopular enough.

Pitt is a borderline anti-pub home favorite, but one that I want no part of even coming off the losses the last two weeks. San Diego is still higher in DAVE.

No other reason on the Ravens other than 1.5 points of value from the current pinny line over ESPN. Followed VW on the survivor pick with Houston, so might as well root for them to win big too.

Probables: Jax, KC, St. Louis, Cleve, Seattle, Miami
Maybes: MNF U, Wash-TB O,



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  1. Laying 3.5 with Dallas is beyond bad.

  2. How so? Denver had terrible preseason projections and 3 wins that look pretty marginal. I guess Denver is somewhat unpopular on Wagerline(all I’ve checked so far), but not enough for me to switch my opinion on a meaningless pick. As I said, I guess that could change later due to line moves or other sites showing Denver as really unpopular.

  3. “How so?”

    Because Denver is +3 -118 at Pinnacle right now.

  4. Fair point. That is probably enough in a game I don’t care about.

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