Okay, I may be the only person excited about Michael Sim’s PGA Tour debut(with a card), but here’s why:
-Michael Sim was listed as the third favorite at 35-1(with Senden, Rose & Haas(WTF?)) to win the Turning Stone Championship. Here is a list of players you might have heard of before who he is ahead of:
Davis Love III
Charles Howell III
Jeev Milkha Singh
-If you go just by my rankings for this year, Michael Sim is THE best player in the field(~20-1).
-You’re probably thinking that my Nationwide conversions are wrong, and that may be a fair argument, but the Nationwide Tour is pretty good and Sim finished in the Top-10 8 out of 12 times, as well as an 18th on the poor side of the draw(3 strokes disadvantage) at the rainy US Open and a made cut at the PGA. Sim is pretty good.
Let’s just say the field is approximately 1.5 strokes worse at a NW Tour event than at a strong fielded PGA Tour event. That’s 6 strokes worse over 4 rounds. So, subtract six shots from his 8 top-10s, and you probably have 8 top-25s on the PGA Tour. How many players on the PGA Tour finished top-25 in 75% of their starts. Not many.
The bottom line is, I could make a strong case for Sim at 45-1 being worth it given that that is clearly a pretty preposterous line for a minor-leaguer, Sim has clearly has a ton of talent, people probably under value performance on other tours, and Sim, at his age, should probably have his performance weighted a little more towards this year because of his upside.
35-1, though, is just too tight. I’d love it if he won, but I’d rather root for a mediocre finish than pick better spots later in the AAAA series.
The rest of my leans looked like this:
Allenby was fairly easy to cross of the list, with his second place finish last year and small price. I still think the books are not giving Allenby credit for his good play so maybe that is an option if Allenby is lurking in contention later in the week.
Goggin would have to be my strongest lean until you factor in that he has a strong history at this course. My numbers still show value at 45-1, but it’s not much and I’d rather stay away from this one.
That leaves Trahan. Ehh. Not thrilled about that, though I don’t have a good reason. I think the best option is just to lay off for now and see if one of these guys jumps into contention.
Michael Sim -110 v. Ryan Moore(1)
Mathew Goggin -110 v. Marc Leishman(1)
Couldn’t help myself on Sim, especially when he is matched up against a winner from a few weeks ago. Moore had a strong amateur career and is young, but I can’t see him having more potential than Sim at this point, and I would argue Sim has been a better player over the past 2 years.
Lost on Leishman against Mahan last week for one round, but got an absurd line, so not really worried about that. Again, Leishman made a nice little name for himself during the FedEx cup, but Goggin overall is better, and was at home resting for a few weeks.
I’ll take those for Rd 1 as well: