PRESIDENT’S CUP EARLY LOOK

The odds are already out there, so why not.

Thanks to XLSsports, I was able to run a simulation(100,000 trials) for the President’s cup. Here is what that produced:
prezzycup

To come up with this, I averaged out all the players scores from my rankings and combined them to form a score for the International Team and a score for the US Team. Then I went back and found out the tie % historically for each of the different formats and adjusted that in. It turned out like this:

Foursomes: US 51% Tie 10%
Fourball: US 48% Tie 13%
Singles: US 54%

Apparently you can’t tie in singles anymore unless the cup has already been decided, so for the sake of this, I just used the Tie % of zero. I think that is the best way to determine who actually wins.

And finally, here is the % that the US ends up with each score:
prezzycup2
This isn’t perfect because as I said once one of the teams gets 17.5 players can actually halve. It’s doubtful that in the slight chance the US dominates they would actually get to 29 because there is probably a 10-12% chance the matches end in a tie after they get to 17.5

The most likely score for the match is somewhere between US 18-16 and US 19-15. If you were setting a spread US -3.5 -110 would probably be a pretty fair line.

Another problem is just throwing Tiger in with the US Average might skew it to the US a little bit. That probably puts the US win % down a few points in the 5 matches that don’t involve Tiger and up a little in the one’s that do. Not sure How that would actually affect the odds of the US winning, but I’ll take a look at that, along with more specific situations once the pairings are out next week.

Advertisements

Leave a comment

Filed under Uncategorized

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s