GETTING UP EARLY

Geoff Ogilvy -110 v. Y.E. Yang(1)
Hunter Mahan -110 v. Marc Leishman(1)
Luke Donald -110 v. Retief Goosen(1)

I took all these lines last night when they first came out. Not really sure what the Greek was thinking releasing everything at -110. This one was from 5dimes last night:

Brian Gay -105 v. Y.E. Yang(1)

The Y.E. Yang phenomenon is my favorite running storyline in the golf world*. He is the perfect combination of probably past his prime, over achieving year and last major champion. I am 6-0 +6.70 fading Yang since the heroic effort at Hazeltine. Ogilvy’s 75-73 is a nice touch, as well. The current line is -130/105 and I have -135/135 as the fair line, which still gives a small edge if you really want to get invovled.

*By running storyline, I meant something only I care about.

I’m guessing Mahan’s 73 today is influencing the line against Leishman, because that is preposterous. Take out the last three weeks and this line doesn’t even exist. Again, this line shifted as well. In this one I have -139/139 as the fair line so this is probably a lay off now.

I’m not getting off the Luke Donald bandwagon just yet especially when matched up against Retief Goosen. Finally, Kevin Na is a personal favorite, off two mediocre rounds against number 4 on my hit list(Dustin Johnson), but that one was realistically close enough that taking into account each player’s second round -110 is probably fair.

Updated Odds:
tc2
I’m not sure the first two columns are totally correct, because I think the small field overstates the difference between one shot(e.g. Luke Donald has played slightly below field average for the first two rounds, but he’s only 6 shots back. I think I’m understating the chance of the players that are 5-7 shots back). So, the third and fourth columns use a average standard deviation to come up with the odds(usually I standardize the scores then do the odds, with only 30 of the best(mostly) players in this tournament I feel like standardizing the scores is a bit risky). So, I’m not putting too much stock into these.

Laying off Tiger to NOT win because of that, and I think Tiger is still hitting the ball better than he is scoring right now, which is dangerous. I feel more confident about fading him tomorrow.

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